Thoughts and preview for five of Saturday’s college basketball games:
Alabama vs Missouri
Crazy I am typing this, but this is a 1 vs 2 matchup in the SEC and if you take a look at Alabama’s schedule it’s a cake walk after Missouri. Alabama has South Carolina, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt. That should be an easy 4-0, so with that said I do believe the veteran heavy Missouri squad can catch this pretty sitting Alabama team in a bad/weird spot. I like how they match up and we saw them defeat them by huge margin last season in a 19 point routing. I think the line will hold value with Missouri at a PK, but I would play them to -2.
Kansas vs West Virginia
I was all over Kansas last time these two met and KU blew them out for good reasons. The deciding factor was Kansas made 16 three’s and made more foul shots. The game was pretty much summed up as easy as that and then you throw in McCormack having a double double and the rest was history. I think WVU is in a good revenge spot and they tend to play Kansas much better at home. I think they do a good job of controlling pace, limiting Kansas to a lot of one and dones, and surely guard the 3 pt shot better. I would be taking a look at WVU here with a line at -1 to WVU. Look for a big game from McBride and either Culver, McNeil, Matthews, or Sherman to step up as a key X-factor here.
Wisconsin vs Illinois
Should be a fantastic game and I think this game can be bet, but it’s very line dependent. I would be taking a look at the Badgers if they are getting 2-3 possessions here. Veteran heavy team and I think they travel well to Illinois looking for a big road win. I like Wisconsin to slow down Dosunmu, but Cockburn and Bezhanishvili do worry me as they combined 10-13 last time they played Wisconsin. Potter and Reuvers are finesse bigs that can score on them, but on the flip they likely will not be winning on the glass down low. This game comes down to how well Trice, Ford, and Wahl can play. I’d lean Wisconsin with +4.5/5, but would take a look at Illinois if they are -2.5/-3. Could be a tricky game to bet, but a must watch for any fans of college basketball.
UNC vs Duke
Duke has to be licking their chops here as UNC does travel poorly. This would be Duke’s best win to date and I expect them to be extra up for this game even though there’s no fans at Cameron. However how does Duke defend and battle UNC down low. I don’t trust Matthew Hurt at all down low and maybe trust Jalen Johnson to clean up the glass. With all that being said I would have to lean UNC here hopefully they will be under dogs, but I would back them as small favorites even. If UNC can have one guard stop up for solid production and chip in 15-20 they should be good to roll here. Brooks, Sharpe, and Bacot should just be too much for Duke to handle. If Hurt or Johnson get in foul trouble good night Duke.
Tennessee vs Kentucky
Have the immediate thought of looking at an under here. How does Tennessee score on an athletic Kentucky defense at Rupp and on the flip how does Kentucky score on a prolific Tennessee defense. I don’t bet college basketball totals, but I would look at an under here. I think Tennessee being the better team by some margin does control tempo and pace and we see a slow game. I can’t look at Tennessee on the spread because their offense can stall time to time. Can’t really look Kentucky, because they are a shit show and you never know what to expect out of that offense. Immediate look to the under.