5 unit bet (Fri 4:30 ET)
James Alberino
Oregon State just upset Colorado, Oregon, and UCLA 3 games in a row and won the Pac 12 tournament for the first time ever. Oregon was the hottest team in the Pac 12 and Oregon State was up double digits on them most of the game. Their two guards Jarod Lucas and Ethan Thompson both can get hot – Thompson was 5-8 from three vs Oregon, Lucas 3-7 and Alatishe is a good big man who does a lot both on offense and defense. They have size and a good bench. 10-1 ATS run and one of the hottest teams coming into the tournament. They defend the three well – Colorado, UCLA, and Oregon were 26.5% from three on them combined in the Pac 12 tournament. In the last 7 games outside of beating Florida twice, Tennessee lost to Kentucky at home by 15, lost to Auburn without Sharife Cooper, and played a close game vs Vanderbilt’s backups. 19 turnovers vs Alabama. They’re 3-8-1 ATS as a favorite of -7.5 or more since January 1st and they had more than a few games this year where their offense stalled or they turned the ball over on big possessions. They’re 168th in the country in effective field goal percentage. Oregon State has that feel of one of those teams that’s on a special run and they’re going to keep going – first Pac 12 championship, really well coached, good team offensively and defensively. And with the tournament starting a day later they have a little more time to come down from winning the tournament and refocus. Oregon State’s head coach Wayne Tinkle coached at Montana before this and went to the tournament 3 times – 0-3 but that was with a Big Sky team that wasn’t athletic like Oregon State is. Colorado and Oregon both can beat almost any team in the country so these wins say what Oregon State’s ceiling is. Tinkle took Oregon State to the tournament in 2016 and lost by 8 to VCU. If they can win their first Pac 12 championship then they can put themselves in a good spot to win the first game in the tournament. Fulkerson’s status for Tennessee is still up in the air. Rick Barnes is 24-24 career in the tournament. If Oregon State keeps doing what they’ve been doing the last 3 weeks they’ll win this game.
