I have been waiting for this spot for a couple weeks now, it is finally here and Auburn is a home dog. The public perception is that Georgia has a significantly better offense and that simply is not the case. In my eyes, Auburn has played a significantly stronger schedule. According to TeamRankings Auburn has the 2nd toughest schedule while Georgia’s is ranked 16th. Auburn has played their toughest games on the road this season as well. Going to LSU and losing by a FG, going to Florida, and going into A&M. Auburn is more than prepared for this game and having the bye week makes it that much better of a spot.
Looking at these offenses, despite the tougher schedule Auburn is actually averaging more points per game, 32.7. Georgia’s offense has not wow’d me all year, frankly they are just not quite as explosive of a unit as many had predicted they would be. Georgia is averaging 30 points per game this season and averages 435.8 yards per game. In terms yards per game Auburn, is right there at 425.6 ypg.
Georgia has not faced a front seven close to the one they will see on Saturday as Auburn features arguably the most talented group up front defensively. Auburn is allowing just 17.4 points per game good enough for 11th in the nation. UGA is just 84th in the nation averaging under two sacks a game. Georgia has a legit defense there is no getting around that, they are holding opponents to just 9.2 points per game which is 2nd in the nation. Auburn is going to need to use good defense and play mistake free offense to win this game and they have the rushing game to do it. They average five yards per carry, 32nd in the nation. This team is committed to the ground game and despite the schedule featuring tough defenses average the nation’s 23rd best 210.6 rushing yards per game. Auburn does not need to ask the world of Bo Nix they just need him to manage the game and limit mistakes.
I really like this game to be controlled by Auburn’s defense and like the under here as well. This Auburn teams two losses are to Florida and LSU by a combined 11 points. These teams do a lot of the same things really well. However, give me the more battle tested team at home as an underdog. Auburn is off a bye and will benefit from the rest and extra time to prepare as well as finally getting one of these marquee opponents in their building. Head Coach Gus Malzahn is 5-0 in his last five games off a BYE, the home team is 10-3 ATS in these teams last 13 meetings, and Kirby Smart is just 1-4 ATS following an ATS win in their previous game. I like Auburn to win outright here perhaps a game decided by less than a field goal.