This is supposed to be the year Virginia finally beats VT after last year’s close call but I’m going to ride the team that’s been hot and is peaking at the right time. VT is 5–0 ATS their last 5, which includes losing by 1 at ND as 17.5 point underdogs and beating Wake by 19 as 3 point underdogs. Their defense has started to dominate and they’ve covered the spread by an average of 25.5 ppg the last 4 games and the market has adjusted very slowly to their number. They’ve completely flipped the switch on defense and QB Hendon Hooker starting midseason has changed this team. VT shut out Pitt 28-0 last game as 3.5 point favorites, Virginia gave up 28 vs GT and won just 33-28. Virginia also lost to Louisville a few weeks ago.
It’s going to be a hostile environment for Hooker playing in Charlottesville but fortunately for VT there are two key guys missing for Virginia in the secondary, CB Bryce Hall and Brenton Nelson. Virginia also gave up 4.2 ypc and 31 points vs NC and 4.5 ypc vs GT, so Virginia Tech can lean on their run game. Bryce Perkins can be dangerous but if he doesn’t have a huge game I really like VT’s chances. Virginia may have more fans in the stands and the “due” factor in the series going for them, but this VT team is playing on another level and I’ll back them until they show otherwise.
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