Oregon St. +6.5 vs Hawaii
These two teams are spitting images of each other, and this line in inflated due to how many eyeballs were on Hawaii’s upset of Arizona in week 0. Oregon State also played their only game in prime-time but with much different results – a 16 pt. loss at home to Oklahoma State. They did so without their best defensive player though (Jalen Moore), who is likely to play this weekend. If not for Oklahoma State’s efficiency on 3rd downs (10 for 13), this game would’ve been a lot closer.
While Hawaii does have a rest advantage, they also have a trip to #14 Washington looming. I don’t expect that to be a huge factor coming off a bye, but I just cannot lay almost a touchdown with one of the worst defenses in college football. Yes, Oregon State also has one of the worst defenses in college football, but they held Oklahoma State to less yards per play than Hawaii did against Arizona (7.2 vs 7.4). In a game that may be decided by whoever touches the ball last, take the points. Only 33% of tickets are currently on Oregon State, but you don’t get rich following the public in the late-night bailout game.
- Hawaii is 2-10-1 ATS (16.7%) as a home favorite since 2015
- They didn’t cover by an average of 8.6 points in those games
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