Michal Oleksiejczuk -222 (1u) over Ovince Saint Preux
Note: I don’t make a habit of laying 222 often, but there are some strong advantages I see in this handicap.
Let’s head across the pond for some rare afternoon UFC action and collect on another undervalued favorite in the process.
Michal “lord” Oleksiejczuk, who we will refer to as Lord for the rest of this article to avoid typing that name, is better by wide margins in a couple key areas that give us a clear path to victory. The two specific areas I’m talking about are speed and cardiovascular. Lord has the quickest hands in the light heavyweight division and as time goes on his opponent OSP is becoming slower. Volume wise Lord throws and lands over double OSP’s career output. Lord getting better every fight – young, hungry and on the rise. OSP the exact opposite, on his way out, couldn’t look less like he cares in his last fights. With each fight trending in those directions you can safely assume Lord should be minimum at his average, likely above his average in this spot. We can say the opposite for OSP. In fact to be fighting in the top 15 without more than 5 minutes of gas in the tank is crazy, he isn’t putting in the effort. The foot work, head movement and pace is going to make OSP very uncomfortable. By round 2, if we get there the speed will be way too much for a gassed out Saint Preux. At that point we take over, if we haven’t already, make it look easy and finish the fight. I would be surprised if Saint Preux survives to round 3. If he does he will be taking the beating of a life time. I made this line -275, implying we have a 74% chance of winning, I made that on the low/safe side. Gives us a 5% edge on the books with a strong probability.
So where does the 26% for OSP come from? His ability to grapple and submit people, as well as heavy hands. I give him 4 minutes to use his skills because of his horrible cardio. In the event he can grab a very early takedown and keep position he could finish anyone. That is a very tall order for a 4 minute window and almost like working against yourself if you fail to finish. I also don’t think he can get the takedown that easily. OSP averages 0.88 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 29% accuracy, not looking so good to find that takedown in the short window. Wrestling is the ultimate cardio crusher, if he doesn’t finish in that window he’s toast. When I say bad cardio, I mean horrible. At some point it should look like an athlete vs a regular guy. Evening winning the round won’t help because he is incapable of winning rounds 2 and 3. So its amazing early submission or lucky punch ko, a horrible spot to be in.
Signficant Strikes per minute: 2.6
Percentage landed: 43%
Percentage landed: 54%
Strike differential: -1.35 per min
Signficant Strikes per minute: 5.43
Percentage landed: 59%
Percentage landed: 31%
Strike differential: +1.75 per min
We must adjust for strength of schedule but the adjustment still leaves us a good size gap. OSP doesn’t throw enough to outland Lord.
Lastly, travel and time zones. Sometimes lengthy travel, changing time zones and adjusting to culture while attempting to cut weight can be a negative. OSP has a 11 hour flight and 6 hour time difference. He’s also a large guy for the 205 weight class and has had trouble with weight cuts in the past. Lord has just over a 1 hour flight and no time difference. Very easy weight cut for him anyway.
Best of Luck,
MMA Record 65-35 +41.20u (65%)
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