Herm Edwards got his signature win as an Arizona State head coach by defeating Michigan State on the road a couple weeks ago. Heading to 15 Cal won’t phase the Sun Devils tonight. The last two games played by these teams in 2014 and 2015 were both shootouts combining for over 90 pts. Don’t expect that type of offense tonight because the 1st to 20 could win this game. ASU ranks 85th in S&P+O and 16th in D. Cal ranks 92nd in S&P+ O and 21st in D. Freshman Jayden Daniels has looked better with each game and put up 345 last time out. Eno Benjamin needs to lead the way for this Arizona State offense and get the ground game going and they have a chance to do that as Cal’s rush defense is 62nd in the nation allowing 4.2 ypc. ASU has a net ypp of 0.5, Cal has a net ypp of 0.1.
For Cal to pull out the win and cover in this game they are going to need to throw the ball better than they have this season (210 ypg). If there is no threat of Garbers pushing the ball down field expect this Arizona defense to try and sell out to stop the run. Arizona State has done well stopping to rush as they are 28th in ypc allowed however they are only average (69th) in terms of y/a passing. Garbers has yet to show much passing and if Arizona State is able to stop the running game the Golden Bears could have a tough time finding the endzone.
Field position could be a major factor in this game as Cal punts 27th most often in the country and only averages 37 yards per punt while Arizona State averages 50 yards per punt. Arizona State has already faced one of the top defenses in the country and came out on top and they should feel very confident going into this one. S&P+ has this game as a pick em’ so I feel like there is a lot of value on Arizona State +4.
Arizona St. +4 1U
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’19 NCAAF 29-21-1 +5.16 units