Spurs +4 game
Spurs +1 1st half
Even though the Warriors won by double digits in Games 1 and 2, the Spurs have a few reasons to be positive about this one specific game. For one, they were ahead 53-47 at halftime in Game 2 behind really good first half defense. They’re also a MUCH better home team – 33-8 at home vs 14-27 on the road. They’re 8-0 SU & ATS their last 8 home games vs playoff teams and that list includes the Rockets, Jazz, Blazers, and Pelicans. They also led at halftime in 7 of those 8.
For Golden State, Klay has shot a ridiculous 10-14 from three in this series but on the road him and Durant are just 21-71 (29.5%) from three their last 4 vs playoff teams. LaMarcus Aldridge dropped 34 in Game 2 and Golden State didn’t have an answer for him. The Spurs shot 4-28 from three in Game 2 and that has to improve – Murray and Green combined for 4 points and they should both have better games. Rudy Gay should play well – he had 21 vs the Rockets and 16 vs the Blazers at home recently. Patty Mills had 21 in Game 2.
The books moved the line from +3 to +4 when it was announced that Pop wouldn’t coach but I’d argue that the players will likely rally around even more to win one for the guy they love. I can see a Spurs lead at halftime, the Warriors making the +4 bet a nail biter later, but the Spurs pulling away with the win. The Warriors are 2-8 SU & 1-9 ATS their last 10 road games vs playoff teams and I’m riding all the numbers in the Spurs favor behind what should be a rocking crowd at home.