1.5 unit bet
Iguodala and Olynyk still questionable as of an hour before this tips off. I’d like to see them play but I’m playing it for 1.5 whether they play or not because I think Miami is deep enough and can give more minutes to Butler, Crowder and Herro and make up for the loss. Marvin Williams is the only big off Milwaukee’s bench and he doesn’t scare me enough on offense if Olynyk doesn’t play. Milwaukee can go all out here with their backs up against the wall but I’m confident the Heat show up and play hard and don’t take being up 2-0 for granted – they have the #1 seed on the ropes and Jimmy Butler and this team don’t take games off. I think Milwaukee needs to either shoot really well to cover this number or force a bunch of turnovers and get easy points in transition. I’m willing to lose if either of these happen because Miami’s
halfcourt defense is better than Milwaukee’s half court offense and Miami just plays smart on offense and takes care of the ball. Milwaukee has the urgency factor on their side but that was also the case in Game 2 and they were still down 10 with 7 minutes left. A lot of pressure on this Bucks team in this spot with the longterm implications of Giannis after this season and I can’t make a case for Milwaukee laying 5. If Olynyk and Iguodala don’t play I’m betting on a next man up mentality and that the Heat get enough out of Butler, Bam, Crowder, Dragic, Herro and Robinson. Willing to lose money on this team because they’ve shown they’re the better team throughout the entire bubble and I’m going 1.5 unit here with the injuries in question after the last 3 plays were 2.5’s.