Heat -1.5 -115 vs Celtics Game 1 2 units
The Bucks are a very good team but the Heat play a completely different style of defense than Milwaukee and it could take a half or a game for Boston to get used to after what they just saw for 7 games. Boston shot 55 threes in Game 7 and 43 in Game 6 because Milwaukee’s defense plays a lot of drop coverage and is designed to give up more threes and compensate by giving up less in the paint. The Heat won’t do that – Miami will trap off screens at times, PJ Tucker will defend Tatum full court, and there could be times Tucker doesn’t switch Tatum at all. The switches on Brook Lopez dropping won’t be there because Bam can stay in front of everyone Boston plays and the Heat will also play a zone at points and Boston hasn’t seen a lot of that in a while. Jimmy Butler and PJ Tucker have the ability to limit 1 of the 2 out of Jaylen Brown or Tatum and give the Heat chances to play more in transition. As great as the Celtics are they were at their best vs Milwaukee when they had to be – down 0-1, down 2-1, and down 3-2. Miami is also really good at home and hasn’t lost at home yet in the playoffs. This probably goes 7 but Miami’s in a good spot to strike first and is well aware that hardly anyone’s picking them in this series despite being the 1 seed.