James Alberino, The Spread Investor
Wanted to write this up quickly as Carolina is one of the biggest public plays of the week.
Coming from someone who predicted the Panthers beating the Packers last week, I want to caution you all against that oh-so-tempting Carolina play over the lowly Titans and here’s why: this game is so much bigger for the young Titans than it is the Panthers. The Titans have a new head coach and are coming off a win while the Panthers just played the toughest stretch of their schedule and this isn’t a big game for them at all.
Let’s look at the Panthers’ most recent stretch as they just played 4 brutally competitive games in a row:
@ Seattle – Week 6
vs. Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football – Week 7
vs. the Colts on Monday Night Football – Week 8
vs. the Packers – Week 9
Two primetime games + The Seahawks + The Packers.
Do you know how hard it is to prep week-in and week-out 110% for a team? Do you know how much these Panthers players must have sacrificed the past few weeks to stay as sharp as they have the past few weeks? Sooner or later the human element kicks in where giving 110% of focus and effort for a full week of preparation is hard. You can’t argue that the Panthers looked at the schedule and said “Man, we can’t wait to play Tennessee.” That’s not the case. If anything, Tennessee is the one more excited for today. They have a new coach, they’re coming off a win, and this is their Super Bowl. They will come out with energy.
I’m not saying Carolina won’t win. Good teams find ways to win and Carolina is a great team. They’re also undefeated and are playing for that, but that doesn’t mean that covering 6 points on the road will be easy.
Carolina doesn’t blow many teams out – they have won by double digits just twice in the last 7 games. What’s their upside today if we anticipate a little bit of a letdown start – a 10 point win? Maybe 13 points? Maybe. That’s not enough of a cushion and there are plenty of other games with more value today.
Stay away from Carolina today.