Wild Card Weekend ’16 – Steelers @ Bengals +3. Andy Dalton was OUT and 62% of the betting public was on the Steelers. Spread Investor clients had Cincinnati +3 and they covered in an 18-16 loss in what should’ve been an outright win.
“Bengals are 0-6 in playoff games under Marvin Lewis”
“Ben Roethlisberger’s experience over AJ Mccarron will get the Steelers the win.”
Yeah I’ve heard that all week. The media has a way of brainwashing people.
62% of the betting public is on the Steelers bandwagon but here’s what you need to know: The Steelers are 1-4 SU their last 5 road games and Ben Roethlisberger has just a 5:9 TD: INT ratio on the road this season. Everyone’s in love with the Steelers fantasy football offense but forgets that they just lost to the Ravens as 10 point favorites with Ryan Mallett two weeks ago. Just know that Antonio Brown has just 5.5 receptions/gm in 2 games vs Cincinnati this year when he averages right around 10/gm this season.
The 0-6 playoff record? That’s with Andy Dalton having an awful 1TD: 6INT ratio in playoff games because he couldn’t play in the spotlight before this year. AJ McCarron thrives in the big games. This is the same guy who won a national championship as the quarterback for the 14-0 Alabama team in ’09. This guy can rise to the occasion.
The public also needs to realize that McCarron has 4 TDs & 0 INTs in the three games he’s started… and one of those games was versus Denver’s defense who is significantly better than Pittsburgh’s defense. True the Bengals lost that game but it was on the road and in OT by 3 and McCarron looked very comfortable with AJ Green. Scouts said he could’ve been a 1st or 2nd rounder because of his arm strength, mobility, an vision but he came across as cocky. The Bengals seem to know how to handle him and I actually want a guy that has some of that cockiness in what’s for sure going to be a chippy game. His preparation for this game came in the Monday Night primetime game @ Denver where he was an impressive 22/35 for 200 yards 1 TD & 0 INTs.
Pittsburgh DID beat Cincy last time in Cincy but Andy Dalton got hurt and AJ was forced to play without much prep. Different ballgame here with Cincinnati in revenge in primetime.
The Steelers gave up 27 points to Brock in a half (and should’ve been more had Brock not injured his shoulder), 39 to the Seahawks, and 35 to Oakland – AJ can exploit this secondary especially with Tyler Eifert back now after injury. The Bengals offense with AJ Green, Marvin Jones, and Tyler Eifert is better in this game than the Steelers because the Steelers should struggle in the run game:
DeAngelo Williams has been ruled OUT for this game and is being replaced by RB Fitzgerald Toussaint who had just 24 yards on 12 carries last week. Even in college he had just two 100+ yards games his JR & SR years at Michigan.
Before placing their bets the public has to know (but most don’t) that Cincy has held Big Ben to just 1 TD and 4 INTs in their 2 games this year because they play their secondary deep on him and force him to throw underneath and run the ball….2 things the Steelers don’t want to do.
Everybody seems to have forgotten that the Steelers just lost to the Ravens on the road as 10 point favorites. You’ll be talked out of this play by the public heavily but I’m riding CINCY +3 in revenge, in primetime, strong for 7 units.
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