The stage is set for Sunday Night Football in a Super Bowl 49 rematch. This game and the Cowboys/Steelers matchup are the two games everyone will be tuned in on, here are a few things to know for this game:
- Seahawks are 10-2 ATS their last 12 games as an underdog. It doesn’t happen often but the Seahawks have been money in this spot. Don’t get too excited at this number though because:
- Patriots are 9-1 at home their last 10 primetime games. They are 6-3-1 ATS during this stretch and that 1 loss came in 2012 to Kaepernick and the 49ers.
- Tom Brady is a whopping 92-16 lifetime in home games.
- Tom Brady is 107-68 ATS (61%) lifetime in primetime games.
You can make an argument to bet both sides but the public and sharp money have spoken loudly about how they feel about this game and the overwhelming support is for New England in this game (surprise, surprise). Jason Simbal of CG Technology Sportsbook in Vegas reported Friday that their book had almost 10x as much money on New England as they did on Seattle. This line opened at New England -6.5 and was moved to -7.5 within 4 minutes.
The Patriots are coming off a BYE and had some time to work on their pass rush, which has been the only weakness of this team. They also get Dion Lewis back for this game who should help move the ball in space. The Seahawks, for all the public love they receive, haven’t been as good as their record indicates. Yes their passing game picked up last week vs the Bills and Russell Wilson finally looked healthy, but Christine Michael and CJ Prosise combined for just 10 yards on 8 carries in that game and the run game has been holding them back all season. If they can’t establish the run in this game it will be an uphill battle keeping up with Brady in this game.
I’ve released 3 plays this week to subscribers. You can get these plays here