I expect you to disagree with a lot of what you’re about to read. The trends, the records, and the stats favor Kansas City strongly and it probably has you loading up on the Chiefs. I’m not here to dissuade you from that. However, given how often we’ve seen overwhelming underdogs cash tickets and win outright this season, is anyone really in a position to overlook a home underdog in primetime? Especially one that was the AFC West favorite 6 weeks ago.
I think the Raiders have a shot tonight at the outright win and here’s why:
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The Chiefs have been dominant all season but they just got punched in the mouth by the Steelers and got exposed badly in run defense – Le’Veon Bell just ran for 179 yards on the Chiefs in Arrowhead the week after the Steelers were in turmoil and the Steelers were supposedly “finished.” The Steelers were having problems with Antonio Brown, problems with Big Ben, LeV Bell wasn’t in rhythm and they just went into Arrowhead and punched the Chiefs in the mouth. The Chiefs now give up 4.8 yards per carry on the season, a lingering problem that plagued them all of last year.
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Even worse than the Chiefs’ run defense was their offensive line and running game – Kareem Hunt had 21 yards on 9 carries. This is the same guy who has been running all over every team every week. The Steelers defense did what the Texans couldn’t do in Week 5 vs the Chiefs when JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus went down in the 1st quarter – attack the offensive line and bottle up the run game. The Chiefs have been playing with their backup C and backup RG and it finally caught up to them vs a team who has the personnel to exploit it.
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Now, you’re probably saying “The Raiders’ D sucks and you can’t compare them to the Steelers.”
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Valid. But NaVorro Bowman is starting for the Raiders tonight and Khalil Mack has yet to record a sack this season. Isn’t there a possibility that Bowman lifts this defense’s spirits and the defense plays their best game of the season? Of course there is no guarantee but we all just saw Adrian Peterson come in on 3 days of practice and completely change an offense who has been dog shit for a month and a half.
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We also just saw a shitty Patriots defense rise up a few weeks ago on a short week and hold the Bucs to 14 points. The Patriots didn’t change much on defense they just individually played better in their 1 on 1 matchups. Stephon Gilmore was a problem and he became a strong point on that Thursday night game. The Raiders can’t do the same?
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Maybe the Chiefs make me look like a fool tonight and maybe I’m wrong for still believing in the Raiders like I did in the beginning of the season. But the crowd is wild in Oakland in primetime, the Raiders offensive line and Lynch can rise up against this run defense, and the Raider defense can all come together. That’s how the Raiders can win this game tonight. Call me a fool but I’m not surprised if Friday morning NFL media outlets are going crazy talking about “What’s wrong with Kansas City’s offense?”
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Raiders +3, 1.5 units.
(plays are rated 1 to 5 units in order of confidence)
Basketball and football handicapper.
