Colts at Patriots -10 — Thursday Night Football, Week 5.

1/2 unit play — Plays are rated 1 to 5 units in order of confidence


The Patriots had their “get right” game Sunday against the Dolphins and it wasn’t all that surprising. Now they get Julian Edelman back the week after they started getting Josh Gordon involved in the gameplan. Sony Michel broke out for New England with 112 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. For the minority of people wondering if Brady is on the decline, just watch the highlights from Sunday and look at his passes to Cordarrelle Patterson and Phillip Dorsett down the field and it will remove any small doubt about the g.o.a.t.

The Colts come in at 1-3 playing competitive – close losses vs Cincinnati, Philadelphia and most recently Houston. They beat Washington 21-9 on the road. You might be impressed with a narrow 20-16 loss against the Super Bowl champs in Philadelphia but consider this – the Eagles held the ball for 40 minutes, the Colts were 2/12 on 3rd downs, and the Eagles had 152 rushing yards to the Colts’ 68. This was all in Carson Wentz’s first game back and Alshon Jeffery did not play. Immediately after the Eagles game the Colts played at home to the Texans and got dominated once again on the stat sheet – Houston had the ball for 40 minutes (ironically) and had 119 rushing yards to Indianpolis’s 41.

Now the Colts come in banged up – T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle, and Marlon Mack are all out. They’re also down two cornerbacks on defense while New England is trending in the exact opposite direction getting Edelman back and ramping Josh Gordon up. Gronk has an ankle injury but is expected to play.

Laying 10 in the NFL is never sexy but you have a rookie head coach on a short week off an emotional loss going against Brady and Belichick in primetime. Not only that, but the Colts defense has been on the field for a combined 81 minutes the last two games and fatigue is naturally going to be a little bit of a factor. Wind gusts may get up to 22-24mph according to weather reports but Brady will likely just pick apart the Colts defense with slants and by getting his RBs involved. New England has KC on deck and you know they’re going to want their offense clicking before then – Brady was still slinging it Sunday when the Pats were up 38-0 against Miami.

Expensive line and a small concern about the wind, but I’m putting a half unit on New England -10 -110 and I also am going to put them in a small teaser with one of my top plays for Sunday.