Bills -2.5 — 1.5 units

Bills play hard at home. Detroit’s offense is limited without Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson. Blount averages just 2.9 ypc and Stafford had just 104 yards in a win at Arizona last week. Buffalo is off 2 losses but they outgained Miami and the Jets by a combined 360 yards. Josh Allen threw a few bad picks last week and he’ll have chances to bounceback against a Detroit defense that gives up 4.6 yards/carry and 8.2 yards/pass attempt.

Buffalo’s strength is their defense and they should be able to hold the Lions under 20. Not an ideal scheduling spot for Detroit either – they flew to Arizona last week and now fly all the way to Buffalo to play in 34° weather. Stafford and the Lions are 13-24 ATS in December and January in the cold. 

LeSean McCoy likely not playing and Chris Ivory’s status is up in the air, but backup RB Marcus Murphy is solid – power runner and can bounce outside. 5.2 ypc this year (41 car/215 yards). First team all-SEC in 2014 with Missouri.

This is likely a cover that’s won by defense and field position putting the offense in place for a second half cover.