Saints -2.5, -130 vs Rams — 1.5 unit
1/2 point bought (typically don’t buy off of 3 but I don’t want a playoff game to end in a push).
The Rams were impressive against the Cowboys but the Saints’ offense is a different beast. The Rams gave up almost 5 yards per carry on the ground this season and Brees will be able to spread the ball around to Thomas, Ginn, Smith, Kamara and Ingram.
Jared Goff relies a lot on Sean McVay’s communication from the headset presnap and the noise in the Superdome can affect that on a few key plays. Gurley and CJ Anderson will be a challenge for the Saints (especially without Sheldon Rankins) but the Saints’ defense looked great the last 3 quarters of the game last week and Goff has just a 10:9 TD:INT ratio on the road this season. Rankins’ backup David Onyemata has also filled in well at times.
Drew Brees is 6-0 at home in the playoffs with the Saints. Having Aqib Talib in for this game definitely helps the Rams but the Saints’ defense has been better than the Rams’ defense all season and I trust Brees in a big moment more than I do Goff. Teams in conference championships playing their third home game in a row are 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS since 2002. The Dome is too much for the Rams in late game moments, Saints win.