1.5 unit
The Colts are better in the trenches on both sides of the ball and the Texans have 4 key guys in the secondary out for this game. TY Hilton is healthy for this game and has dominated Houston in his career. The Colts have hit Watson 33 times and sacked him 18 times the last 4 games vs him and tonight shouldn’t be much different. The Colts haven’t had a great passing game but a lot of that is because Hilton was hurt. Marlon Mack is out but the Colts offensive line is still better than the Texans’ defensive line and the Texans are the worst defense in the NFL vs the pass against RBs, so the Colts should be able to at least get Nyheim Hines involved in the pass game and Jonathan Williams in the run game off a good game vs Jacksonville. Houston’s pass rush also isn’t the same without Watt. Houston already gives up the 4th most passing yards in the league at 272 ypg and the secondary being hurt only helps Brissett. Fatigue from the short road week is one of the only disadvantages for Indy in this game but they get the benefit that their last game was a blowout and Houston had to travel from Baltimore on a short week as well, so that’s why I’m going against the TNF trend that says to fade the road team. Indianapolis is the better team and is 5-1 ATS the last 6 in this series and coming into this game with a lot of confidence whereas the Texans have to find their rhythm off the blowout loss to Baltimore Sunday.
