2.5 unit play (plays are rated 1 to 5 units with 5 being a max bet)
Browns +10 at Kansas City
This is my boldest bet in a while except for maybe Cleveland in the first half last week – I don’t think it’s that easy for Kansas City to just turn it on after 2 months of not playing football the way they’re capable of. They went 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games and struggled to put away the Broncos, Raiders, and Falcons in the last two months. After their last bye they were in a game where they were highly motivated to beat the Raiders after they lost the first time to them and all the Raiders did was give them a game right til the end and Mahomes had to put together a game winning drive. I’ve bet the Andy Reid off a bye angle for years and think this is different because usually Reid knows who he’s playing with two weeks in advance and could prep extra for that team. In this case there were three different teams the Chiefs could’ve faced in this game and the Browns weren’t the opponent until late Sunday night. I don’t agree with the angle that the Browns played their Super Bowl last week – I think they get a boost by Stefanski coming back and some other key guys from injury and the Covid list. Nick Chubb ran for 5.6 yards per carry this year and the Chiefs struggled vs the run a lot this year. Kansas City is 2-6 SU the last 3 years when they possess the ball for 25 minutes or less. Kansas City also has the worst ranked red zone defense in the NFL and gave up touchdowns on 76% of trips this year. I think Cleveland comes in fiery to this game – Baker, Landry, Chubb, Hunt, Garrett – these guys are winners who played college football at the highest level. Most of the country just doubted them last week and I see more of the same this week playing a Chiefs team who’s starters haven’t played in 3 weeks and were in cruise control like the 2018-2019 Warriors for half the season. Browns make this a physical game and competitive and I’m not surprised if they win the game.