Aaron Rodgers is 61-35-4 ATS (64%) in his career at Lambeau. He is also 10-5-1 ATS with extra time to prepare in his career. In the postseason Rodgers is 11-6-1 ATS (64.7%).The key to the game will be the turnover differential. Despite the Seahawks playing awful last week, I think they still would have won if it wasn’t for Russell Wilson’s awful pick six and the Rams winning the turnover battle by +2 overall. I don’t think Rodgers will have those same issues and that’s why I think the Packers will win. The 6.5 points worry me just a little because the Packers D has been known to get soft in the 2H when they have a lead but I still think the Packers win.One angle I like is the first half. The Packers are best in the NFL in 1H PPG at 18.7 against a Rams defense that is 14th in 1H points allowed. The Rams offense is 20th in the NFL in 1H PPG at 11.9 against a Packers defense that is 3rd in 1H points allowed.
Angles: Packers 1H, Packers as a teaser or ML parlay piece
Saints at Bucs:
Playoff underdogs when it’s the third matchup between two teams are 17-10 ATS (12 of 17 were outright). We saw it last week with both the Browns and Rams winning outright as dogs against divisional opponents. Now the Bucs are in a spot where they were killed in their last matchup and Brady was awful in the first matchup. However, due to the fact that it was the first game of the season and there were some crazy special teams plays I’m throwing out the first game. The second one was a blowout, but that was the first game with AB and there may have been some issues integrating him into the offense but he has been on fire as of late and so has the rest of their offense.I think Bucs keep it very close and this game comes down to the wire. According to DVOA these are the two best teams in football and I think both defenses will play elite. At the end of the day, the Bucs receivers have the edge over the Saints secondary and Tom Brady is playing at a higher level than Drew Brees so I think the Bucs win the game. In a coin flip game if I can get 3 I will take it.