A bunch of props listed here – from fun props to researched props that have good value. Tried to cover a little bit of everything in this. A lot of you don’t know this guy yet but Blake helped me break down games every week from stats to injury reports to game recaps. He had a really good football season (even better in college) and he’s someone whose work you will see a lot of next season, so take a look there are some props I’ll be on from here as well.
One of the best parts of the Super Bowl is having only one game to focus on so you can bet a ton of props for fun on top of your real bets. From the coin toss, to actually well-researched player props, and those random off-the-wall props that make people at your Super Bowl party look at you in terror when you stand up and scream “FUCK YES!” after a random play. Without further ado, enjoy:
Anytime TD Scorers- Evans (+115), Gronk (+230), Kelce (-165), Brady (+550), Sherman (+2200): I love Brady on the sneak, Gronk in the big game, Anthony Sherman on a sneaky goal-line play, Kelce is Kelce, and Mike Evans has been targeted 15 times inside the 10-yard line this season. The results: 10 receptions, 10 TDs, 1 drop. That’s nuts.
Missed XP by either team (+230) (FD): Butker is 54-for-61 extra points (89%) which is worse than his FG percentage, Succop is 60-for-66 extra points (91%) and this is his first Super Bowl. I could see either kicker missing one here.
Mahomes to throw an INT (+130): The Bucs have five interceptions in their three playoff games this year and Mahomes did throw a pick in the Super Bowl last year so I like getting plus odds here.
Players to Attempt a Pass o2.5 (+165): This one can win three different ways: if a QB gets injured and the backup comes in and throws a pass if there is a trick play (more likely with the Chiefs) where someone else throws a pass (Kelce has this year), or a fake punt (the Chiefs have done that this year). Because of all the varieties of ways to hit this and because in the SB, teams are more likely to whip out a trick play they’ve been sitting on, I like this one.
Darrel Williams u2.5 receptions (-182) (DK), u30.5 rushing yards (-110): Williams has had higher numbers the last few weeks because of CHE being out with an injury but I think CHE dominates the snaps at RB for the Chiefs in this game and I also don’t think the Chiefs will run the ball at all.
Brate receiving yards o26.5 (-130): The Chiefs have been beaten by tight ends all year and that’s where they’re the most vulnerable. Brate had 34 yards in the first matchup against the Chiefs and is averaging over 49 YPG in three playoff games.
Gronk receiving yards o30.5 (-115): Gronk had a monster game in the first matchup, he had over 100 yards receiving. I think in this big of a game Brady will go to the only guy on this team that he has been to SBs with before. Like we saw last week against GB, when the Bucs needed a big passing play to ice the game late, they went to Gronk for a 29-yard reception.
Ronald Jones o8.5 carries (-122) (DK): Because of the possible rain and just because the Cheifs have been so bad against the run, I think the Bucs will be run-heavy in the big game and RoJo will take more carries. Playoff Lenny has been big in the passing game but I think RoJo will be more of the every-down back and get at least double-digit carries here.
Tom Brady o0.5 rushing yards (+140): This is the Brady sneak prop. Every 3rd or 4th and 1 we’ll be cheering for this one. The only fear is Brady kneel-downs at the end of the game to kill it. Brady has gone over this in 2 of his last 4.
Tyreek Hill o92.5 receiving yards (-125), Tyreek Hill alt. receiving yards o124.5 yards (+230): Tyreek caught 13 of 15 targets for 269 yards and three scores in the first matchup and has gone way over this in both of their other playoff games. Tyreek is just built different.
Mahomes u329.5 passing yards (-110), Mahomes u28.5 completions (-124): This is probably the scariest bet of all time. That being said, Mahomes has split this number in his 20 games this season. Mahomes has gone under this in his last four games including the two playoff games. Mahomes has gone under the completion mark in 5 of his last 6. I love this tough Bucs defense to keep both of these under.
Longest Reception- Scotty Miller (+1200): Scotty has been a deep-ball target for Brady all year and I like this shot. Tyreek is the clear favorite for this but I like Scotty.
Longest Rush- Tyreek Hill (+800), Mecole Hardman (+1200): The Bucs running backs aren’t explosive at all and the Bucs defense is so good that I think the only way a huge run gets broken is on a trick play where Tyreek or Mecole breaks a huge one. I love the value of these shots.
Exact Score Bucs 28–24 (+10000), Bucs 28–27 (+17000): Pretty simple. Taking fliers on how I see the game going.
MVP- Hill (+1400), White (+5000), Barrett (+5000), JPP (+8000), Carlton Davis (+30000): I think Tyreek Hill is the only non-Mahomes player that could win for the Chiefs because he can dominate the game so much as he did in the first matchup and potentially score on running plays, he could win that. Then with the Bucs, I think if they win this game it will because their defense plays a perfect game. Because of that, I could see someone from their defense winning the MVP like they did the last time the Bucs won the SB so I’m taking a shot on my four favorite defensive players.
Note: I’m betting heads and the National Anthem under because, why not?
Best of luck!