The last game the Browns played was on the road against the Chiefs and the game finished inside this number. The Browns should be coming into this season with a ton of confidence after winning a playoff game against their biggest rival last year and proving to the world they are a legit contender. For this matchup against the Chiefs, they will have OBJ back and I think that changes everything for them on offense. I am a big Jarvis Landry fan but I think he is infinitely better going against #2 corners than #1’s. OBJ should give the Chiefs big problems and Landry should be able to beat up on the Chiefs secondary. However, most of the cap is the Browns running back duo of Chubb and Hunt going against the Chiefs run defense that was 20th in the NFL in rush yards allowed last season. The Browns have a really solid OL and they should protect Baker and allow him to make smart decisions and the Browns run game to succeed.
The Chiefs offense is the Chiefs offense and Mahomes will always get his. However, the Chiefs have 3 rookies on the OL for Week One and while they could be solid players, nothing can prepare a rookie for their first full-speed NFL game, particularly when you have Myles Garrett and co. coming after you. The Browns also added Greg Newsome in the draft at CB who was their standout performer at training camp and will pair with Denzel Ward in what is a rapidly improving Browns secondary. I think with the help of their pass rush the Browns secondary will be able to limit the success of Mahomes from what we normally see.
The Chiefs were on a 2-9 ATS run to end last season and clearly had a problem putting teams away. Their defense could not handle the pressure of teams pushing hard against them and the Chiefs offense would get complacent late in games. I think the Browns are going to be able to keep this close the whole way.