This is mostly a play on the Browns run game and offensive line being a lot better than Kansas City’s run defense and being able to setup Baker Mayfield a lot for good 3rd down situations. I think the Browns can have a few long drives that keep Mahomes off the field. Kansas City gave up 4.6 yards/carry last year and the most reception yards to RBs, so Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should be able to move the ball a lot. Their linebacker Willie Gay is also out Sunday. Chubb averaged 5.5 yards/carry the last 8 games last year and averages 5.2 yards/carry over 3 seasons. Kareem Hunt vs some of Kansas City’s linebackers will be a mismatch in the pass game and Nick Chubb will be used in the pass game too. Mahomes will move the ball and the Chiefs will have 3+ touchdowns. If the Browns get to 23 I think they cover 6 though. And if they run as much as they should they’ll likely win time of possession and wear down Kansas City’s defense as the game goes on. The Browns defense got better on every level and a lot of guys starting now weren’t on the team last year. It will be loud in Arrowhead but a good run game and picking up first downs helps quiet the crowd a little and not force Baker into long down and distances. Somewhere around 80% of the tickets are on the Chiefs, I think this is a close game and the Browns will have a chance to win in a good rematch from the playoffs.