The Chiefs defense gave up 404 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns in 2 games and now Frank Clark’s out for this game. They moved Chris Jones over to DE to help their pass rush and now they’re thin at DT. Starting LB Willie Gay Jr’s been out. Ekeler averages 65 receiving yards/game out of the backfield the last 5 games vs Kansas City. CB Charvarius Ward is out and Mike Williams is going to go against some corners who are 5’11 and 5’10 and will have a 5 inch height advantage. Herbert targeted Williams 22 times in 2 games so far. Charvarius Ward is the oldest cornerback at 25 every other guy is 24 or younger without a lot of experience. Keenan Allen should have a huge day. Herbert’s first start ever was vs the Chiefs and he threw for 311 yards and the game went to OT at 20-20. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce combined for 189 yards that game and CEH ran for 5.7 yards/carry but the Chargers still held them to only 20 before OT because they made stops at key points. Derwin James didn’t play in that game. He won as a rookie in Arrowhead in 2018 and Kelce in two games Derwin James played had 6 catches 67 yards and 1 catch 6 yards. 3 of the last 4 games Mahomes played vs the Chargers the 3 games were decided by a combined 11 points and all but 1 of those was with Rivers not Herbert. The Chiefs have one win by more than 7 points in their last 13 games and they were favored by 7 or more in 6 of those games. Whatever points Mahomes puts up Herbert could match vs this defense. The Chiefs defensive line coach said the other day “we all know this is still a work in progress…that’s kind of where we’re at with it.” Kansas City is 1-12 ATS their last 13 games. I was waiting on the Bosa news and was going to bet this even if he didn’t play and it went to 7.5/8 because I trust the Chargers offense that much in this spot and with Bosa in and a good number at 7 it’s definitely a play.