James Alberino
Sending this out right before 9:30 AM ET Sunday and 17.5 -110 is available at Fanduel and then 18.5 -110/115s or 17.5 -115/-120s at most books
Mahomes went Over this number 8 of the last 10 regular season games and he ran 8 times last week vs Buffalo for 61 yards. He’s averaging 30.6 rush yards/game this season and 6.7 yards per carry. He’s had 4+ rush attempts in 11 of the last 14 games. Washington’s defense gave up 26 rush yards to Jameis last week, 95 to Daniel Jones a few weeks ago, and Matt Ryan had a 17 yard run on them in Week 4. Quarterbacks against Washington have 4 or more rush attempts in 4 of the 5 games this season and they give up the 5th most pass attempts in the NFL, so there will be chances to scramble especially with Chase Young winning his matchup on the edge. 4 rushes for Mahomes at 6.7 yards per carry would project a little under 27 yards and 3 rushes would project 20.1 yards. Mahomes was asked this week in a press conference about him running the ball more recently and if it has to do with teams giving more attention over the top to Tyreek Hill. Mahomes said that when the deep routes are taken away him running is what the defense is giving him a lot of times. Against Washington there are going to be a lot of opportunities for Hill and Kelce down the field regardless of how much coverage there is so the risk with this play is that Mahomes is going to have more chances deep in this game than he’s probably had all season, Josh Gordon should get more targets, and he’s going to want to throw down the field. But getting 3 rush attempts out of Mahomes in this game is very reasonable and running at Washington’s linebackers will be advantage Mahomes all game. This is a good number in a game where Mahomes will dropback a lot and this can hit in 2-3 rushes with a quarterback who averages 4.26 runs a game the last 2 years.
