Dolphins at Bengals -3.5 TNF Week 4
The Dolphins defense comes into this game after playing 41 minutes Sunday vs the Bills. Tua’s back injury kept him from throwing early in the week and hurt him in the middle of the Buffalo game. He might be fine but there’s a scenario where he’s not 100% for all 60 minutes. The Bengals defense has been great all 3 games even in the 2 losses and their defense is holding quarterbacks to 5.6 yards per attempt. The Dolphins have had next to no run game – Chase Edmonds is averaging 3.4 yards/carry, Raheem Mostert 3.3 yards/carry. 64 rushing yards per game for the Dolphins, 31st in the league. Their runningbacks combined for 14 rushes 32 yards vs Buffalo and that was with Ed Oliver out and defensive injuries for Buffalo all over. Tua can find himself in 3rd and longs tonight and as explosive as the plays to Tyreek Hill and Waddle have been, the offense hasn’t been balanced and the Bengals defense is fast and has a good secondary. Cincinnati’s defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown in 21 drives and the two games vs Kansas City last season they held Tyreek Hill to 6 catches/40 yards and 7 catches/78 yards. Again, Tua might be fine but the more he plays the more risk for his back to flare up and if the Dolphins have to rely on explosive plays this might not be the best game to do that in. Miami faced the Bills defense with almost all of their secondary starters out and the Ravens secondary had a lot of injuries that game also. The Bengals secondary is in a much better position than the Bills and Ravens’ secondaries were when they faced Miami. Tyreek Hill had 33 yards vs Buffalo and Miami was down 34-13 vs the Ravens in their only road game so far.
Miami’s defense and their pressure up front can give the Bengals offensive line problems but the question is can they sustain that energy for a whole game after how much they played vs Buffalo. The Bengals offense had their problems the first 2 games but looked really good Sunday and even though it was against the Jets at the least they have momentum coming into this game and knocked off the post Super Bowl rust. Burrow is good vs the blitz and can move the ball if Miami decides to blitz as much as they normally do. Cincinnati can go uptempo at times and test the Dolphins’ energy in this game. Miami left for Cincinnati early Wednesday morning and earlier than they normally would have because of the hurricane, so their practice schedule was thrown off this week. With the Bengals at 1-2 with momentum and the Dolphins at 3-0 after playing an exhausting game vs Buffalo, the Bengals need this game more than the Dolphins do and can’t afford to go 1-3 after making progress last week. Cincinnati’s in a good position to win this game on the short week.
Early money moved this up to -3.5 and then 4 early in the week. I missed out on -3 and I played Bengals/Cowboys +140 in a moneyline parlay but I think the Bengals can cover -3.5 and this might not be as close of a game as it’s being built up to be. Bengals halftime/fulltime +105 looks like a good ticket too and 49 looks high.
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