NFL Week 5
Chargers-Browns is a rematch from the 47-42 Chargers win last year. The Chargers give up 5.4 yards/carry and that doesn’t bode well going against Nick Chubb especially without Joey Bosa. Dameon Pierce and James Robinson each had 100+ yards vs the Chargers. This is also a back-to -back road game for the Chargers after playing in Houston last week and now going to Cleveland. The Browns are 5th in 3rd down offense, the Chargers are 21st in 3rd down defense. Cleveland also gets back Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney while the Chargers are still without Keenan Allen and have to block those two without Rashawn Slater. This is also an early start for the Chargers.
The Texans run defense is terrible – they give up 5.4 yards per carry and 172 yards per game. Khalil Herbert ran for 157 yards vs them. They’re also without their best edge rush Jonathan Greenard. This is a great matchup for James Robinson and great bounce back spot for Trevor Lawrence after the Jaguars were on the road back to back weeks and now play at home at 2-2. Houston’s offense is 31st on 3rd down.
The 49ers give up only 2.9 yards per carry on the ground, best in the NFL. I am here for all the 3rd & longs with Nick Bosa vs Baker Mayfield. Matt Rhule’s employment status is getting more iffy by the hour. The Panthers are converting only 25% of their 3rd downs. San Francisco is also 4-0 to the Under and every game combined for less than 40.
The Seahawks defense gave up 378 yards to Goff last week and 45 points to the Lions…without D’Andre Swift and Amon Ra-St Brown. The game was also in Detroit and they then flew back to Seattle and then cross country again to New Orleans for today’s game. 4 different timezones in 8 days. The Saints are without Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas but they get Kamara back and Chris Olave should give the Seahawks defense fits. Dalton might be better for this team because he makes less mistakes than Winston. The post-London spot isn’t as bad as it sounds on paper because games in London start way earlier than normal which means teams finish earlier and don’t lose much time getting ready for the next week. New Orleans is 1-3 and in a must win spot. Marshon Lattimore did a really good job on Metcalf in the past. New Orleans has a strong defense and you have to question if Seattle is as prepared for this game as they can be after back-to-back cross country trips.
The Bengals embarrassed the Ravens twice last season – 41-17 and then 41-21. The Ravens now at home, off a loss, on Sunday Night Football vs a team that hasn’t gotten their offense up to the speed it was last year is a good chance for a bounce back.
Falcons +10 may seem nice on paper but Dean Pees blitzes too much for my comfort and Brady got Chris Godwin back last week. Must win spot for Tampa Bay and if they get ahead early in this game and Mariota is forced to pass more the +10 won’t look that good anymore.
Get me far away from the Titans-Commanders game. The Titans have a lot of injuries and Thursday night subjected us to enough shitty football for the week.
I really wanted to bet the Cowboys because the Rams are just not a great football team right now. Dallas has the Eagles on Sunday Night Football next week and maybe they’re looking ahead a little. If not their defense can give the Rams Oline and Stafford some major problems.
If Xavien Howard is good to go then I lean Dolphins in this game. The big story with this game was the injuries to Waddle, Hill, Howard and Armstead but it looks like Miami should be pretty good on the injury front. You didn’t need to come here to hear for the 18th time this week about how Teddy is 24-6 ATS on the road as a starter in the NFL. The Jets wins were both flukey. They were down 20-10 mid 4th quarter last week.
Buffalo is down 4 starters in the secondary – Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Tre’Davious White and Christian Benford. Pickett might have 3 interceptions in the stat sheet from last week but arguably none were his fault – one was a Hail Mary in the end zone as the clock expired. His first pick he threw a good ball and gave Claypool a good chance to make a play against a smaller defender, Claypool just didn’t extend his arms out to catch it. The 2nd pick was debatable – it was catchable and should’ve been caught 70+% of the time and it took a bad bounce off the receiver’s hands into the Jets defense. Regardless, Pickett is a spark for this team and a full week of prep should help. Pickett also had 2 rushing touchdowns last week and completed all 10 of his passes outside of the 3 picks. 9.2 yards per attempt and 12 yards per completion. Pickett was a gamer in college and he will not be short on confidence this game.
NFL ’22: 12-8 +4.57
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