Arizona +21.5 at USC
Will it be Jayden De Laura or Noah Fifita or Arizona? Does it matter? Fifita did play pretty well against Washington in a game where Arizona hung around against a really good team.
To me- USC laying this many points is not bettable in this spot. Of course they could win big at any time, but I see two key issues:
- USC has shown us time and time again that they will get the big lead and then the defense lets teams back in it in the second half.
- USC plays at Notre Dame next week. A HUGE matchup. This isn’t a spot you would expect USC to just try to run up and score and show everything they have.
I like Arizona +21.5. The back door is wide open in a game with a Alex Grinch led USC defense. Arizona has enough weapons to put up a good amount of points.
@KyleHunterPicks on Twitter
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Texas A&M +3 -125 vs Alabama
We’re heading back to the SEC for our 4th write-up of the year and a 4-0 start to the season on these plays. Saban is rarely ever a favorite of less than a TD within the SEC, but in 20 such instances at Bama, he’s only covered the number 35% of the time. He’s facing A&M this weekend and in his last trip to College Station back in 2021, Bama lost outright as 18-point favorites! Additionally, in his last 15 SEC road trips, Bama is 33% ATS. Jalen Milroe is going to struggle finding any room to run against this A&M defense, who have already completely shut down two solid RPO teams in Arkansas & Auburn these last two weeks. Their front 7 & rush defense overall are both top-20 units in the country, which should force Bama into several 3rd & Long situations – something that doesn’t bode well for Milroe, who is very limited as a passer, especially in known passing downs. Now, Alabama’s defense isn’t anything to sneeze at either, boasting the best overall defense in the country against the pass. However, their rush defense is no where near a top unit, which A&M should be able to exploit. Their ground game, combined with an overall 3rd Down conversion rate of 50% (19th best in the country), should be enough to keep things close with Bama offensively. Their ground game should also do a great job extended long possessions, milking clock and keeping the ball out of Alabama’s hands. I see A&M controlling the line of scrimmage in this matchup and with distinct advantages on defensive and the more dominant ground game we’re going to back Jimbo and the Aggies catching the points at home.
@HammerHeadbets on Twitter
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Over 47.5 Giants at Dolphins
Miami is going to have an opportunity to bounce back after a disappointed performance in Week 4 against Buffalo matched up against a Giants’ defense that ranks 27th in our defensive efficiency metrics, 30th in EPA/play and 24th in YPP. They struggle to defend the run, ranking 25th in rushing YPG allowed and 26th in runs of 10+ yards, which is going to be a significant issue against a Dolphins’ rushing attack that ranks 1st in the league in rushing YPG and 2nd in runs of 10+ yards. Miami ranks 3rd in RZ trips per game and 2nd in RZ TD conversion rate, while the Giants rank 28th in RZ trips allowed per game. The Giants have amassed just 4 sacks through the first month of the season and will be facing a Miami offense that has protected Tua well (albeit he is getting the ball out extremely quickly), ranking 3rd in the league in sacks allowed and 2nd in QB hits allowed. The Giants’ offense has been brutal thus far this season off a week where they allowed Daniel Jones to be sacked 11 times against Seattle, but all things considered, they’ve faced premium defenses in the Cowboys and 49ers in two of the first four weeks of the season. They’ll be facing a Miami defense that is allowing 29.8 points per game and ranks 26th in defensive efficiency, 29th in EPA/play allowed, 29th in YPP, 28th in 3rd down conversion rate, 25th in passing YPG allowed and 23rd in YPC. The Dolphins rank 30th in RZ trips allowed per game and 27th in RZ TD %. Daniel Jones looks like he’ll be missing 3 offensive linemen who DNP on Thursday, but has a chance to get Saquon Barkley back in the mix. Daniel Jones unsurprisingly struggled against the Cowboys and 49ers in Weeks 1 and 3 respectively – virtually every quarterback in the league is going to do so. In Week 2 against a Cardinals defense that ranks 28th in YPP allowed and EPA/play, 30th in 3rd down conversion rate, 29th in YPA and 31st in passes of 10+ yards allowed, Jones finished 26-37 for 321 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 INT along with 59 yards on the ground and a TD on 9 carries, leading the Giants to 31 points of offense. We have two very suspect defenses on the field, a premium offense in the Dolphins and a Giants’ offense that has yet to find its footing through four weeks but has an opportunity to do so against a Miami defense that is not grading very well at all through the first month of the season. Miami should have their way on the offensive side of the ball, and we expect some positive regression for a Giants’ offense in Week 5 against a bottom 10 defense.
Pat Higgins
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Rams team total O22.5 -118 2 units
Injuries in the secondary still for the Eagles and they’ve struggled vs tight ends so Tyler Higbee has a good matchup and the Rams also get Cooper Kupp back. A combination of an injured secondary and really good run defense has teams throwing on the Eagles on 70% of plays (2nd most in the NFL) and the Eagles defense is 25th in 3rd down conversion % and 28th in redzone defense. The Eagles gave up 31 to Washington and Sam Howell last week and 28 to the Vikings in Week 2 even with multiple turnovers. The Rams scored 23 on the 49ers in Week 2, 30 on the Seahawks in Week 1, and they had 23 by the middle of the 3rd quarter last week vs Indy. Stafford should throw the ball often in this game.
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Best bets have gone 8-7 on here to start the season.
