Jaguars +125 to make the playoffs

The Jaguars started last season 8-3 and were coming off back to back wins vs the Bills and the Texans in a stretch where they rushed for 200 yards vs Buffalo and then won on the road in Houston with Trevor Lawrence throwing for 364 yards. Then Lawrence got hurt vs the Bengals the next week on Monday Night Football and had to come out of the game and the Jaguars lost in overtime by a field goal. The next 6 weeks the season came off the rails and they lost 5 of their last 6 games and finished the season getting upset by the Titans in Week 18 to miss the playoffs and opened the door for the Texans to become the talk of the division. A mix of injuries plus bad defensive coaching and chemistry derailed a promising season and followed up a playoff season with disappointment. Christian Kirk, Tyson Campbell and Trevor Lawrence all played through big injuries and 7 assistant coaches ended up getting fired and a new defensive coordinator was hired.

New defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen brings a man heavy scheme after the Jags spent a lot of time playing zone and the Jaguars added Ronald Darby to a secondary with Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco and Darnell Savage. The offensive line should be in much better shape after Cam Robinson was suspended and didn’t play half the season last year and Ezra Cleveland joined them midseason and didn’t spend training camp with them. Mitch Morse at Center helps them on the inside. The skill players and the upside don’t get talked about enough – Christian Kirk, Travis Etienne, Evan Engram and they drafted Brian Thomas Jr from LSU who led the country with 17 TDs and is 6’5 and runs a 4.3 40.

They play 2 games in London back to back vs the Patriots and the Bears and spending the extra week there while Chicago and New England have to adjust to London is an advantage for the Jags. Non division games vs the Raiders and Vikings are very winnable.

The Jaguars win total is set at 8.5 with the Over 8.5 -115. To make the playoffs they’re anywhere from +115 to +130. The AFC South is competitive with the Texans and the Colts but in terms of a Wild card the Jaguars are better than 2, probably 3 teams in the AFC West and are better than the Steelers. For a team that made the playoffs 2 years ago and had 8 wins by Week 12 last year this is a low win total and they’re being written off while the Texans get most of the talk in the AFC South.