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5 unit play on Syracuse vs North Carolina. The sexier matchup tonight is in the Oklahoma-Villanova game but there’s a better money-making opportunity in the Cuse-Carolina game in my opinion.
Now, I’ll be upfront – it’s been a tough tournament. I came into the tournament hot going 8-2 in the conference tournaments but March Madness has been just the opposite going 5-11. Five of those eleven losses were decided on either buzzer beaters or in the final 20 seconds. I’ve seen a shit ton of bad beats in my 11 years doing this but I haven’t had a stretch of 5 bad beats in a couple of days. Happens.
Reason I’m bringing it up is because I have a solid play tonight and I want people to get on it instead of looking at a record without considering any other circumstances. An of my clients who have been with me from day 1 knows it was a bad week and we’re going back at it
$10 for the Syracuse-North Carolina play with a full analysis attached.
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SUNDAY 3/13: PURDUE +5: WINNER
SATURDAY 3/12: KANSAS -4 over West Virginia , 7 units. 6 PM. I love Kansas tonight and think they’re just a better team than West Virginia. Mind you I won on West Virginia last night and I’m still backing Kansas. Kansas’s players are just a step above West Virginia’s – West Virginia’s players are A’s and Kansas’s players are A+s. West Virginia held Buddy Hield in check last night but you can’t do that with Kansas – if you shut out any one of their starters their other 4 will just break you down. Devonte Graham and Frank Mason are a step above West Virginia’s guards and Perry Ellis is the best player on the floor. West Virginia won last night because they controlled the tempo with their press but you can’t do that so easily versus Kansas. Kansas can control the tempo of this game and be the ones taking West Virginia out of their rhythm. Kansas breaks your will when they play you – they dominated Baylor last night and was up double digits most of the 2nd half. Kansas also destroyed Texas by 30 in a big spot and beat West Virginia by 10 the last time they played. Kansas is too good and 4 is too cheap of a number for this game. Kansas should roll. Kansas won by 10.
FRIDAY 3/11:
WEST VIRGINIA -1, 3 units – WINNER
This is a situational play for me and I think WV’s in a better spot tonight than Oklahoma – Oklahoma’s only a 7 deep team and they just had an exhausting game with Iowa St. last night that finished around midnight on the East Coast. WV goes 9-10 deep and had an easy game last night where they won by 20 and their starters were able to rest a bit. On a quick turnaround where rest is so key in these tournaments I’m siding with West Virginia. Buddy Hield is playing out of his mind but Oklahoma’s other 4 starters all struggled last night. The first matchup with these teams was as close as it can get – a buzzer beating win for Oklahoma. The second matchup saw WV’s leading scorer Jaysean Paige and Daxter Miles both hurt, so I don’t take too much away from Oklahoma’s win there. West Virginia presses and will have Oklahoma running all night. Fatigue should kick in for Oklahoma late and West Virginia’s hot enough where they should capitalize. WV won 70-68
THURSDAY 3/10: 2-1 +4.5 units
WISCONSIN -6: LOSER (-5.5 units)
Baylor has a huge size advantage coming into this game as they have 3 big guys – Taurean Prince, Johnathan Motley, and Rico Gathers – that Texas had a tough time stopping in their last matchup. Baylor won that game 78-64 in Texas and completely dominated on the defensive end and showed how much more athletic they are than Texas. Texas can struggle with more athletic teams as they got blown out by Kansas and Baylor this year. Texas DID win the first matchup with Baylor but they played near perfect and Baylor was lazy at points on defense – Texas shot 8-17 from 3 point range- and this was just a 3 point game with a few minutes to go. I think Baylor realized their defensive mistakes and showed how much they can dominate this team if they bring their A game. Now, Center Cameron Ridley is supposed to come back for Texas today after he broke his foot in December but I’ve got to imagine it’s going to be tough playing big minutes with a fast and athletic team like Baylor. Texas will compete, they’ll play hard, but Baylor is bigger and faster and has a few guys on this roster poised to repeat their ’14 run to the Big 12 Championship. Take Baylor PK – 12:30 PM ET
Here is what I said about VIRGINIA TECH +4.5 outright over Florida State by 11 Wednesday night:
The way you beat Virginia Tech is with a big man who can score and Florida State doesn’t have that. Virginia Tech beat FSU by 10 a few weeks ago and has a much better defense than Florida State. Virginia Tech is coming in hot, winning 5 in a row, and just manhandled scorching hot Miami by 15 the other day. Virginia Tech has shooters all over the floor and can go pound for pound with Florida State’s guards. I want the better defense getting 4.5 points. This line was inflated the last time these teams met (Florida State was a -3.5 favorite at V Tech and lost outright) and I think it’s inflated here. -3.5 on the road means that the line would’ve been 6.5 on a neutral court. The line’s 4.5 today and I think the better team is catching points. Virginia Tech & their defense for 5 units.
WASHINGTON -3 by 23- 5 units: WINNER
VIRGINIA TECH +4.5 outright over Florida State by 11- 5 units; WINNER
The way you beat Virginia Tech is with a big man who can score and Florida State doesn’t have that. Virginia Tech beat FSU by 10 a few weeks ago and has a much better defense than Florida State. Virginia Tech is coming in hot, winning 5 in a row, and just manhandled scorching hot Miami by 15 the other day. Virginia Tech has shooters all over the floor and can go pound for pound with Florida State’s guards. I want the better defense getting 4.5 points. This line was inflated the last time these teams met (Florida State was a -3.5 favorite at V Tech and lost outright) and I think it’s inflated here. -3.5 on the road means that the line would’ve been 6.5 on a neutral court. The line’s 4.5 today and I think the better team is catching points. Virginia Tech & their defense for 5 units.
WEDNESDAY: V TECH: WINNER
WASHINGTON: WINNER
UNDER PITT-SYR: LOSS
MONDAY: MONMOUTH -1: LOSS
SATURDAY 3/5: UNDER MIAMI- V TECH: WINNER
WEDNESDAY 3/2: NOTRE DAME 5 units. LOSS
SATURDAY 2/27: NOTRE DAME -2 5 units. LOSS
THURSDAY 2/25: TRAIL BLAZERS -4, 5 units. LOSS
WEDNESDAY 2/24: ARIZONA -5.5, 5 units. LOSS
13-3 ATS (81%) run to end the NFL season
9-2 ATS (82%) Super Bowl record lifetime
18-6 ATS (75%) the last 7 weeks of NFL season
Here is what I said about the Denver Broncos money line +200 winner in Super Bowl 50…
Note: 85% of bets @ LV Sportsbook were on the Panthers -6
“It’s been an incredible 2 weeks waiting for Super Bowl 50 and now we’re just days away from kickoff. Seemingly everyone is betting on Carolina in this game as LV Sportbook estimates that 85% of bets are on the Panthers. With that in mind, I’ll let you know I’m taking the Broncos and I’m taking them big.
I went 10-3 ATS (77%) in January and I’ve also gone 3-0 ATS on Barstool Sports’ Lock of The Week. I’m 8-2 ATS lifetime in the Super Bowl. I’m taking the Broncos +6 for 10 units, my highest rated play.
Here are 7 reasons why Denver will cover and win outright in Super Bowl 50:
1. Complete disrespect for Denver’s defense: Nobody gave the Broncos a chance last week versus New England. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were supposed to destroy Peyton Manning and then win their second Super Bowl in a row. That clearly didn’t happen and nobody’s talking about how Denver’s defense completely broke New England’s offense to pieces that game. Bettors would have taken New England -6 in that game if the spread was that high and the Broncos won the game outright.
2. Denver thrives in the underdog role: “We feed off the underdog role. It sounds clichéd but I feel like every time challengers knock on the door or the media says what we can’t do, we always answer the challenge. I’m eager to get to Sunday.” – TJ Ward
Denver is 4-0 ATS this season as underdogs. They’ve been doubted, criticized, and overlooked all season and yet they’re here in the Super Bowl. I truly believe Denver’s performance last week was a byproduct of the fact that nobody believed they can win that game. Bettors across the country lost a lot of money on New England last week.
Nobody’s giving Denver a shot.
3. Just because Cam Newton is the better quarterback doesn’t mean Carolina -6 is the play.
Tom Brady was a favorite 4 times in the Super Bowl. He lost ATS all 4 times. If Brady and Belichick can lose ATS like that we’re supposed to sit here and think Cam Newton & The Carolina Panthers are invincible?
4. Demarcus Ware and Von Miller can keep Cam Newton in the pocket.
It seems as if Ware and Miller will each win their individual matchups no matter who they face. That helps their chances keeping Cam Newton inside the pocket, which is not impossible to do. Versus Seattle, Carolina won more with their defense than Cam’s explosiveness as the Seahawks held Cam to just 3 yards on 11 rushes. If Cam Newton is kept in the pocket for the majority of the game then The Brocnos’ secondary is good enough to shut down Carolina’s receivers the same way they did to New England’s receivers.
New England had just 12 points of true offense last week – one of their touchdowns was a 20 yard drive off a turnover. Let that one sink in for a second.
If Gronkowski doesn’t make that incredible catch at the end of the game then New England could’ve been held to 3 points of true offense in that game.
5. Peyton Manning’s underrated efficiency since he’s been healthy.
Everyone’s saying Manning is going to get destroyed by Carolina’s defense but nobody is talking about how he fooled New England’s defense multiple times last week for 2 touchdowns and his mobility in the pocket is significantly better now that his foot is healthy.
Kubiak won’t let Peyton put this game on his back and Manning won’t let one of his mistakes cost the team the game. The difference between this season’s Broncos team and any other Peyton Manning team is that Manning’s defense can win this game and doesn’t need 3 or 4 TDs from Manning. He has 0 INTS in the playoffs and his deep passes looked good last week. Carolina plays a lot of zone defense, which plays into Manning’s hands.
6. Underdogs are 6-1 ATS the last 7 Super Bowls and 10-3 ATS the last 13.
Enough said.
*excluding last year’s Patriots-Seahawks game because that spread was PK.
7. Peyton Manning’s retirement.
This is special for Peyton and the entire Broncos organization. Ray Lewis, Michael Strahan, and Jerome Bettis were the last 3 high profile players to retire right after their Super Bowl. All three of them won the Super Bowl as Ray Lewis’s Ravens were 4 point underdogs while Strahan’s Giants were 12 point underdogs to New England. Peyton is in the same exact position.
The players, the coaches, and the Broncos organization want this one for Peyton. Some say it’s impossible to be any more motivated than you already are for a Super Bowl but I’d argue that this moment creates a “next-level” type performance for this game.
I envision Denver’s defense putting this game on their back and playing angry in a game that everybody’s counting them out. Play Denver money line +200 and Under 45.5 as well….Broncos 20-17.
?Super Bowl I Can Not Wait?
-Peyton Manning on this weekend’s Nationwide Commercial
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