Plays are rated from 1 to 5 units in order of confidence.
Raiders -3 5 units
Dolphins -6 2.5 units
Broncos ML . 1.5 units
Ravens ML 1.5 units
Colts +1.5 1 units
Teaser (3 team, 10 points): Chargers +12.5/Broncos +6.5/ Patriots -3.5 2 units
Raiders -3 at Redskins: Raiders are so explosive on offense with the additions of Marshawn Lynch, Jared Cook, and Cordarelle Patterson who is finally being used the right way and has been very productive. Kirk Cousins hasn’t been in sync with his new WR core and had only 179 passing yards last week to a Rams defense that just let the 49ers put up 39 on them. I’m expecting a big game for Michael Crabtree and the Raiders passing game as they look to make a statement in primetime as they know they have two other 2-0 teams right next to them in the division.
Dolphins -6 at Jets: the Jets have an awful secondary, a bad run defense, and are being matched up with a team who looked sharp on offense last week vs the Chargers. Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker should have big games in this one and Jay Ajayi should set the tone on the ground. Dolphins have won 4 of their last 5 in Met Life Stadium and beat the Jets by 20 last season with Matt Moore. Fins are in a pre-London spot which is usually brutal for teams but teams have been performing better in this role recently (4-2 ATS last 6), including the Ravens and Jaguars last week splitting covers (1-1 ATS).
Colts +1.5 vs Browns: Jacoby Brisset looked good on film last week in his first start. He has a good connection with TE Jack Doyle and TY Hilton should have a big game here. The Browns have given up 19 receptions to tight ends (the most in the NFL) so the Colts passing game should have plenty of opportunities today. The Colts are also better on the defensive side of the ball than people realize – they held Todd Gurley to 40 yards on 19 carries and last week they pressured Carson Palmer a lot. Browns are without Corey Coleman and the Colts D should get to Kizer a few times today.
Broncos -3 at Bills: This is a 1PM ET game for the Broncos but they were 4-1 ATS in the eastern timezone last season. Broncos are the better team on both sides of the ball and Von Miller will be matched up against a rookie tackle. The Bills have a very good defense who can pressure Siemian but the Broncos defense is just a little bit better and they have a few more weapons on offense. I’m on the Broncos -170 moneyline in this game.
Ravens -3 vs Jaguars (London, 9:30 AM ET): The Ravens defense has been so good that QBs have 1 TD to 8 INTs vs them through 2 weeks this season. Blake Bortles will struggle a lot and last week Leonard Fournette had trouble running the ball vs the Titans because they stacked 8 in the box often. This should be a low scoring game because the Jaguars have a good defense…I’m on the Ravens -170 moneyline in this early start.
Chargers +3 vs Chiefs: This is do or die for the Chargers after a string of missed FGs have cost them a 2-0 start. It’s hard to get behind this team after seeing so many close losses but the fact is they could easily have 2 wins right now and if that were the case they would be a PK in this game. This is a rematch from last season’s Week 1 game where the Chargers were fully healthy and started out up 21-3 in Arrowhead as 7 point dogs. Keenan Allen then tore his ACL and after a deflating injury loss the Chiefs stormed back for an OT win. The Chargers still covered that game and I think the Chargers know they match up well with the Chiefs. If you’re hesitant to take them +3 then look to put them in a teaser at +9
Bucs at Vikings: Keenum is starting but the Bucs had the flu bug go around this week and they have a lot of guys out on defense. Vikings defense is also strong at home and this isn’t an easy game for Winston.
Saints at Panthers: Saints bad defense got even worse this week with #1 CB Marcus Lattimore being ruled out. Panthers are the better team right now on both sides of the ball but they’re dealing with their starting C being out. The Saints have been awful defending the run so this could be the week Christian McCaffrey has his coming out party.
Seattle at Tennessee: Get this – the Seahawks are 2-12 SU & ATS in September road games under Pete Carroll. Their offensive line is atrocious right now and the Titans have pass rushers to get to Wilson. Derrick Henry looked really good last week for Tennessee and if the Titans are able to run the ball and get pressure on Wilson this is a tough scenario for a team making a long trip from the west coast.
Bengals at Packers: Everyone and their mother is on the Pack and they should cover but they have a lot of injuries. Bengals should perform better with their new OC but Tyler Eifert and John Ross are out. I originally played Bengals +9 small but I can’t go against Rodgers in Lambeau – even with Cobb out he still has Jordy Nelson, Devante Adams, Ty Montgomery, and Martellus Bennett. This is a pass for me.
Falcons at Lions: Two great offenses. Falcons are without Vic Beasley and that could be big. Falcons proved they have no Super Bowl hangover after blowing out the Packers last week. Two things you will learn from this game – can the Lions defense perform vs a good offense? They’ve played two poor offenses so far (Giants and Cards) and this is a big test. The second thing you’ll see is whether or not the Falcons’ defense can look as fast and aggressive on the road as they did last week vs Green Bay. In Week 1 Atlanta let Mike Glennon drive the ball on them a few times and he’s nowhere near Matthew Stafford status. This should be a fun game and I think the over hits.
Houston at New England: Patriots are 8-3 ATS as double digit favorites vs rookies under Bill Belichick. New England is also 8-0 SU at home vs rookie QBs under Belichick but they have lost 5 times to rookies in Belichick’s career. The Texans should get pressure on Brady but ultimately the Patriots should have enough offense to force Watson to play catch up. The Texans are banged up in the secondary and this is a bad week to be injured.
Steelers at Bears: LeVeon Bell should finally get going but this could also be a tough look-ahead spot for the Steelers on the road – they play Baltimore next week in a big revenge game and with how often the Steelers underperform on the road I’m not comfortable trusting them here.
Giants at Eagles: Giants have to pressure Wentz and create turnovers if they are going to have a shot. You can’t expect more than 16-17 from their offense so I can see the Giants defense putting this game on their backs at 0-2 and having a good game. This team is so terrible in Philadelphia though that I wouldn’t recommend any sort of wager on them.