San Diego St +7.5 vs Alabama
San Diego St one of the few teams left who has the size and plays a style that could give Alabama a close game. 4th in the country defending the three (29%) and have similar size to UConn and Tennessee who both beat Alabama this season. Brandon Miller’s numbers are down in the tournament (5 for 22 FG, 3-9 3p) and if the groin injury affected him in those games his margin for error vs San Diego St is smaller than it was in the first 2 rounds. This is probably a physical game that San Diego St wants to slow down a little and not let Alabama run up and down and they’ll likely shorten the game by not giving up many easy shots early in the shot clock and taking their time on offense. They’re 9-3-1 ATS since February 1st and 5 of their 6 losses this season were by single digits. San Diego St has the talent and experience to give Alabama a really good game.