2.5 unit bet
Denver has all the momentum and the Jazz go from being up 3-1 to now having a lot more pressure on them than Denver does. It’s way worse if you blow a 3-1 lead than if you comeback from 3-1, tie a series, then lose a game 7. So I don’t like the position Utah’s in coming into tonight. Murray’s obviously going to get more attention on him and see more double teams but I think that frees up Jokic more in the middle and Jokic is coming on strong and had 28 points or more in 4 games this series. Gary Harris is a big help for Denver because he’s a strong defender and now the Nuggets can give Michael Porter Jr more minutes and Millsap less without exposing MPJ’s defense as much. Jerami Grant had a big Game 6 and is playing great now – 18 points or more twice in this series. Denver’s role players are playing better than Utah’s right now so I don’t think is all on Murray’s shoulders as much as it’s on Mitchell’s shoulders for the Jazz. With Harris back the Nuggets can also go 9-10 deep and the Jazz played their 8th and 9th guys a combined 6 minutes the last game. Momentum, better supporting cast right now, and I’m ignoring the public being on Denver because everyone was on Miami yesterday and Boston Sunday and both of those games hit. Denver was up 14 with 3 minutes left in Game 6. I’m betting this one with confidence and will eat the loss if Utah surprises me.