Chiefs +2.5 at Bills
2 units
This has a different feel from the last few times these teams played in the playoffs because both of their offenses struggled at points this season and the Chiefs relied on their defense to win games so this is probably not a shootout like other Chiefs/Bills games were. The Chiefs defense on paper and with what they’ve done so far this season is the best unit in this game and the Bills have a lot of injuries at linebacker and in the secondary. Mahomes has been good on the road his whole career and the Bills run defense has had flaws this season – they give up 4.6 yards a carry, 28th in the NFL – so the Chiefs can lean on Pacheco in the run game and give Mahomes short down and distances. Mahomes is 8-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog and Spagnuola will bring pressure on Josh Allen and can force a big mistake in this game.
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