2.5 unit bet (Friday 7:15pm ET)
This should be close to a 30 point blowout. Cleveland St was a good ATS team all season but they haven’t faced anyone close to as good as Houston in months and also lost a game to Ohio by 55 this year. Houston’s won 5 of their last 7 games by 24 points or more and they just physically break teams down – they trap teams all over the court, outrebound teams big, and just get after loose balls. Not a team you want to play against. Since their loss on February 18th to Wichita State they are blowing teams out and not slowing down. They beat Cincinnati by 37 in the American championship game and when they were up 35 with 40 seconds left one of their players ran in for a putback dunk off a miss. This team is dialed in. Houston has the #1 effective FG% defense in the country and on this win streak they held Western Kentucky to 57, Cincinnati to 54 and 52, USF to 52, and Tulane to 52. Houston also kills you on offensive rebounds, #3 in the country, and Cleveland State is 309th in the country in opponent offensive rebounds/game. Cleveland State’s first two guys off the bench are a lot less athletic than anyone Houston plays and they should struggle. Cleveland State’s also a terrible FT shooting team at 66% so when you factor in the offense Houston will get turning defense into offense, the second chance points, and the missed FTs from Cleveland St adding up we should have a blowout in this game and another big win from Houston.