Miami -3 vs Iowa St – 2 units
I’m late on the best of the # obviously but I still like it at 3 for a few reasons. I liked Miami early in the week and was ready to go 2.5 units on -2/-1.5 but am going 2 units at the worse #. Admittedly I got a little worried that the “Iowa State doesn’t belong here/they got a lucky draw” narrative would fuel them. But I’m comfortable with Miami because they’re a team of a bunch of seniors and 6th year seniors who don’t make many mistakes and this team has been through a lot of adversity the last few years so I think whatever doubt card Iowa St is playing is negated by the fact that Miami was picked to finish last in the ACC this year and this is their last run together and they have something of their own pushing them. 11 of Iowa State’s 12 losses were by more than 3 and 12 of Miami’s 16 wins since ACC play started were by 3 or more. Iowa St’s defense is great but same read as everyone that if Miami does what they do and Moore, McGusty and Wong get out in transition they can speed Iowa St up and force Iowa St to play some possessions without setting up their defense. Miami’s on a 6-1-1 ATS run and every game covered by 4 or more and they’re one of the few teams who can handle going from underdogs to favorites with success because of their maturity. Lets go Canes.