Fantasy breakdown: players 1-10

Rankings are based off of ESPN’s PPR rankings as of 8/13/17

Players in bold have good draft value (IMO)
Players in italics are either overvalued or have too much risk associated for their ADP (average-draft position).
Players not in bold or italics are ranked appropriately for their ADP but may not have the upside that players in bold have.

*Updates will be made as the summer goes on.

1. David Johnson

Johnson is a workhorse and delivered for every person who drafted him last year – 293 carries for 1239 yards and 16 TDs. It gets better though as he added 80 receptions for 879 yards and 4 TDs. Johnson was able to put up these type of numbers despite Arizona’s O-line struggling at points last year. While these numbers are hard to replicate the workload for DJ will certainly be there, especially if Arians wants to protect an aging Carson Palmer from dropping back too deep in the pocket as the season goes on.

2. Le’Veon Bell

Despite a 4 game suspension LeV put up 1268 yards on 261 attempts and 7 TDs. Like Johnson, he’s also a monster in the receiving game as he put up 75 receptions, 616 yards and 2 TDs. He was on pace for a 16 game season of 100 receptions, 819 yards, 1686 rushing yards and 12 total TDs.

You can flip a coin between him and Johnson for the first pick.

3. Antonio Brown

Averages 11.67 TD per season the last 3 seasons. Has only missed 1 game in the last 3 seasons. He had

106 receptions for 1,284 yards and 12 TDs last year. He also had 136 receptions for 1,834 and 10 TDs in 2015.

4. Julio Jones

2016: 83 receptions, 1409 yards, 6 TDs (14 games)

2015: 136 receptions, 1871 yards, 8 TDs

The one thing he does not do that AB or OBJ does is put up massive TD numbers – just 6.66 TD per season the last 3 seasons. (only 3 missed games). I’m grabbing OBJ if I’m in the 4th spot.

5. OBJ

2016: 101 rec./1367 yards/10 TDs

2015: 96 rec./1450 yards/13 TDs

Averaging 98.5 receptions per year along with 1409 yards and 11.5 TDs per season in his first two seasons. He led the league with 180 targets last year and while Brandon Marshall coming along might mean less targets for Odell it will also help create space and help him see more single coverages. As mentioned above, you can make an argument for drafting Odell over Julio.

6. Mike Evans

Evans was 2nd in the NFL in targets last season with 171. He saw a ton of double coverage last year with a limited wide receiver group and the additions of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard will help on that end. He had 96 receptions for 1321 yards and 12 TDs last year in an offense that’s only getting better with an exciting quarterback and 15 TDs for Evans this year is not out of the question.

7. LeSean McCoy

The Bills are a run-heavy offense that will lean on McCoy a lot once again. This team’s identity is to pound the rock and play tight defense so expect McCoy to produce something similar to the 234 carries, 1267 yards, 50 receptions and 356 receiving yards from last year. The concern here is his touchdown upside – he had 13 TDs last season but before 2016 he’s had touchdown totals of 3,5, and 9 the three years prior. If the Bills offense isn’t as high-powered without Sammy Watkins, does this affect McCoy’s touchdown stats? That’s the legitimate question to ask right now and if I’m drafting 7th I’m looking at Devonta Freeman who is ranked 10th overall or a value runningback in DeMarco Murray at 15th.

8. AJ Green

Green had an injury-plagued season last year tearing his hamstring and played just 10 games for 66 receptions/964 yards and 4 TDs. In 2015 he played a full season and had 86 receptions for 1297 yards and 10 TDs.

You can’t go wrong by drafting Green but at #8 he is certainly a bit of an injury risk as he’s missed 9 games the last 3 seasons. He also loses some redzone targets to Tyler Eifert and his career high in TDs is 11. While there is certainly nothing bleak about 11 TDs, consider that Jordy Nelson had 14 TDs last season and 13 TDs in 2014 and will be available at this spot as well.

9. Jordy Nelson

Jordy led the league in TDs last yr w 14. He also had 97 receptions for 1257 yards. 2016 wasn’t an anamoly for Jordy either as he also had 98 receptions for 1519 yards and 13 TDs in 2014. He may lose some redzone targets to Martellus Bennett this season but he has Aaron Rodgers who led the league last season with 40 TDs and Nelson has been a consistent redzone target of his when on the field.

10. Devonta Freeman

Freeman has had 11 rushing TDs in each of the past 2 seasons. He’s a major threat in the passing game as he caught 73 receptions in 2015 and 54 receptions last year. He is always healthy and has missed just 1 game out of 48 career games. He has averaged 1068 rushing yards the past 2 seasons and, even though the Falcons have a new OC in town, leaning on Freeman is a safe bet.