10-6 ATS college basketball run L 2 weeks +17.7 units
18-6 ATS L 7 weeks on NFL season
Tournament: 2-4, -9.8 units.
Tourney day 3: 1-1, -0.5 units
Yale +6: L , -5.5 units
Kansas -3.5/UVA -3.5 teaser, W +5 units
I’ve started slow in the tournament but this is my strongest card of the tournament.
SUNDAY: 3 plays released:
1 Stephen F Austin vs ND – 7 unit – 2:40 PM ET
2 Wisc vs Xavier 7 unit – 8:40 PM ET
3 VCU vs Okl 5unit – 5:15 PM ET
March Madness pricing
I rate games from 1-10 units and release plays as 3 unit, 5, 7 or 10 with 10 being the strongest and it means I love the game.
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ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS YOU PROBABLY HAVE:
- Picks are emailed to you immediately after purchase.
When you buy the $49 package you’re added to the email list and plays will be sent to you every morning around 10AM.
- Will release 1-2 picks per day during the tournament
- Refund only applies to the $49 package
- Issues/questions email firstname.lastname@example.org
Payment forms: VISA, MASTERCARD, AMEX, PAYPAL.
Want to Venmo? Email email@example.com
Email is backed up with the high demand so there’s a bit of a wait time.
8-4 ATS college basketball run
18-6 ATS L 7 weeks on NFL season
I wanted to let you know my style and how I approach games before you buy. Some handicappers release 3-5 plays a day, others release 1-2. I’m in the second category where I favor quality over quantity. I attack games with a sniper more so than a machine gun, feel me? I’d rather wait and eat a good steak than fill up on the bread. So expect 1-2 plays from me a day in this tournament but expect top notch analysis every single time where you’ll be comfortable making these plays– I research these games a ton and try to find every important angle possible. It’s impossible to win every game but look at your purchase as a 3 week investment where you want to pace yourself. No need to shoot all your bullets on the first two days. Doing well against-the-spread long-term requires the ability to move on the next play win or lose. I move on from every single play and it’s why I can start a ridiculous hot streak after my worst pick. It’s just how I’m wired. This is the way I’ve approached handicapping for 11 years and it’s what separates me from the rest. Let’s start another hot streak.
The 8-2 run from last week…..
SUNDAY 3/13: PURDUE +5 over Michigan State, 3 units: WINNER! 8-2 run in college basketball. Every winner = top notch analysis & prep.
I think Purdue’s playing too well to be catching the amount of points that they’re getting today. Michigan State flirted with a loss to Maryland yesterday while Purdue easily handled Michigan 76-59. Purdue already beat Michigan State by 1 earlier this year and was up 16 in that game. Purdue is BIG and AJ Hammons should make it tough for Michigan State to control the glass. Purdue has been under the radar all year while Michigan State has gotten the spotlight in the Big Ten. Michigan State’s a very good team and Valentine is the best player on the floor, but Purdue has a shot to win outright here and I’m gonna grab 5 points.
5 winning days in a row.
SATURDAY 3/12: KANSAS -4 over West Virginia , 7 units. WINNER! Here’s what I said about Kansas:
I love Kansas tonight and think they’re just a better team than West Virginia. Mind you I won on West Virginia last night and I’m still backing Kansas. Kansas’s players are just a step above West Virginia’s – West Virginia’s players are A’s and Kansas’s players are A+s. West Virginia held Buddy Hield in check last night but you can’t do that with Kansas – if you shut out any one of their starters their other 4 will just break you down. Devonte Graham and Frank Mason are a step above West Virginia’s guards and Perry Ellis is the best player on the floor. West Virginia won last night because they controlled the tempo with their press but you can’t do that so easily versus Kansas. Kansas can control the tempo of this game and be the ones taking West Virginia out of their rhythm. Kansas breaks your will when they play you – they dominated Baylor last night and was up double digits most of the 2nd half. Kansas also destroyed Texas by 30 in a big spot and beat West Virginia by 10 the last time they played. Kansas is too good and 4 is too cheap of a number for this game. Kansas should roll.
My March Madness package will be on sale Wednesday AM.
FRIDAY 3/11: WEST VIRGINIA -1 over Oklahoma, 3 units – WINNER.
This is a situational play for me and I think WV’s in a better spot tonight than Oklahoma – Oklahoma’s only a 7 deep team and they just had an exhausting game with Iowa St. last night that finished around midnight on the East Coast. WV goes 9-10 deep and had an easy game last night where they won by 20 and their starters were able to rest a bit. On a quick turnaround where rest is so key in these tournaments I’m siding with West Virginia. Buddy Hield is playing out of his mind but Oklahoma’s other 4 starters all struggled last night. The first matchup with these teams was as close as it can get – a buzzer beating win for Oklahoma. The second matchup saw WV’s leading scorer Jaysean Paige and Daxter Miles both hurt, so I don’t take too much away from Oklahoma’s win there. West Virginia presses and will have Oklahoma running all night. Fatigue should kick in for Oklahoma late and West Virginia’s hot enough where they should capitalize.
SATURDAY 3/12: VIRGINIA +2.5 over North Carolina- Saturday 3/12. 5 units – LOSS. Virginia got gassed and missed open shots. They went without a field goal for 7.5 and were still covering with .3 seconds left. Free throws burnt it.
I think the better team is catching points in this game. North Carolina has been hot in the tournament but it was vs a soft Notre Dame team who has no defense and Pittsburgh who really only has 3 scorers. Virginia beat North Carolina in the only matchup this year 79-74 and Virginia’s defense is significantly better than North Carolina’s. North Carolina is prone to going cold shooting-wise for stretches and Virginia’s defense consistently applies pressure that makes a game tough for shooters. Virginia’s Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey can bang down low with Carolina’s bigs and Virginia is hot enough where they should exploit North Carolina’s defense. Virginia beat a solid Miami team and was up double digits last night. I think Virgina wins outright so this is a moneyline play but play the 2.5 if you want to play it safe.
VIRGINIA +6.5/ MICHIGAN STATE -1.5– 2 team teaser. WINNER. 2-1 Saturday. 4 winning days in a row.
Kansas -4, 7 unit: WINNER
Mich. St -1.5/Virginia +6.5 teaser, 3 unit: WINNER
Virginia +2.5, 5 unit: LOSS
THURSDAY 3/10: 2-1 +4.5 units
WISCONSIN -6: LOSER (-5.5 units)
Here is what I said about VIRGINIA TECH +4.5 outright over Florida State by 11 Wednesday night:
The way you beat Virginia Tech is with a big man who can score and Florida State doesn’t have that. Virginia Tech beat FSU by 10 a few weeks ago and has a much better defense than Florida State. Virginia Tech is coming in hot, winning 5 in a row, and just manhandled scorching hot Miami by 15 the other day. Virginia Tech has shooters all over the floor and can go pound for pound with Florida State’s guards. I want the better defense getting 4.5 points. This line was inflated the last time these teams met (Florida State was a -3.5 favorite at V Tech and lost outright) and I think it’s inflated here. -3.5 on the road means that the line would’ve been 6.5 on a neutral court. The line’s 4.5 today and I think the better team is catching points. Virginia Tech & their defense for 5 units.
THURSDAY: BAYLOR: WINNER
VIRGINIA TECH: WINNER
WEDNESDAY: V TECH: WINNER
UNDER PITT-SYR: LOSS
MONDAY: MONMOUTH -1: LOSS
SATURDAY 3/5: UNDER MIAMI- V TECH: WINNER
13-3 ATS (81%) run to end the NFL season
9-2 ATS (82%) Super Bowl record lifetime
18-6 ATS (75%) the last 7 weeks of NFL season
4-0 ATS on Barstool Sports’ Lock of The Week
Here is what I said about the Denver Broncos money line +200 winner in Super Bowl 50…
Note: 85% of bets @ LV Sportsbook were on the Panthers -6
“It’s been an incredible 2 weeks waiting for Super Bowl 50 and now we’re just days away from kickoff. Seemingly everyone is betting on Carolina in this game as LV Sportbook estimates that 85% of bets are on the Panthers. With that in mind, I’ll let you know I’m taking the Broncos and I’m taking them big.
I went 10-3 ATS (77%) in January and I’ve also gone 3-0 ATS on Barstool Sports’ Lock of The Week. I’m 8-2 ATS lifetime in the Super Bowl. I’m taking the Broncos +6 for 10 units, my highest rated play.
Here are 7 reasons why Denver will cover and win outright in Super Bowl 50:
1. Complete disrespect for Denver’s defense: Nobody gave the Broncos a chance last week versus New England. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were supposed to destroy Peyton Manning and then win their second Super Bowl in a row. That clearly didn’t happen and nobody’s talking about how Denver’s defense completely broke New England’s offense to pieces that game. Bettors would have taken New England -6 in that game if the spread was that high and the Broncos won the game outright.
2. Denver thrives in the underdog role: “We feed off the underdog role. It sounds clichéd but I feel like every time challengers knock on the door or the media says what we can’t do, we always answer the challenge. I’m eager to get to Sunday.” – TJ Ward
Denver is 4-0 ATS this season as underdogs. They’ve been doubted, criticized, and overlooked all season and yet they’re here in the Super Bowl. I truly believe Denver’s performance last week was a byproduct of the fact that nobody believed they can win that game. Bettors across the country lost a lot of money on New England last week.
Nobody’s giving Denver a shot.
3. Just because Cam Newton is the better quarterback doesn’t mean Carolina -6 is the play.
Tom Brady was a favorite 4 times in the Super Bowl. He lost ATS all 4 times. If Brady and Belichick can lose ATS like that we’re supposed to sit here and think Cam Newton & The Carolina Panthers are invincible?
4. Demarcus Ware and Von Miller can keep Cam Newton in the pocket.
It seems as if Ware and Miller will each win their individual matchups no matter who they face. That helps their chances keeping Cam Newton inside the pocket, which is not impossible to do. Versus Seattle, Carolina won more with their defense than Cam’s explosiveness as the Seahawks held Cam to just 3 yards on 11 rushes. If Cam Newton is kept in the pocket for the majority of the game then The Brocnos’ secondary is good enough to shut down Carolina’s receivers the same way they did to New England’s receivers.
New England had just 12 points of true offense last week – one of their touchdowns was a 20 yard drive off a turnover. Let that one sink in for a second.
If Gronkowski doesn’t make that incredible catch at the end of the game then New England could’ve been held to 3 points of true offense in that game.
5. Peyton Manning’s underrated efficiency since he’s been healthy.
Everyone’s saying Manning is going to get destroyed by Carolina’s defense but nobody is talking about how he fooled New England’s defense multiple times last week for 2 touchdowns and his mobility in the pocket is significantly better now that his foot is healthy.
Kubiak won’t let Peyton put this game on his back and Manning won’t let one of his mistakes cost the team the game. The difference between this season’s Broncos team and any other Peyton Manning team is that Manning’s defense can win this game and doesn’t need 3 or 4 TDs from Manning. He has 0 INTS in the playoffs and his deep passes looked good last week. Carolina plays a lot of zone defense, which plays into Manning’s hands.
6. Underdogs are 6-1 ATS the last 7 Super Bowls and 10-3 ATS the last 13.
*excluding last year’s Patriots-Seahawks game because that spread was PK.
7. Peyton Manning’s retirement.
This is special for Peyton and the entire Broncos organization. Ray Lewis, Michael Strahan, and Jerome Bettis were the last 3 high profile players to retire right after their Super Bowl. All three of them won the Super Bowl as Ray Lewis’s Ravens were 4 point underdogs while Strahan’s Giants were 12 point underdogs to New England. Peyton is in the same exact position.
The players, the coaches, and the Broncos organization want this one for Peyton. Some say it’s impossible to be any more motivated than you already are for a Super Bowl but I’d argue that this moment creates a “next-level” type performance for this game.
I envision Denver’s defense putting this game on their back and playing angry in a game that everybody’s counting them out. Play Denver money line +200 and Under 45.5 as well….Broncos 20-17.
?Super Bowl I Can Not Wait?
-Peyton Manning on this weekend’s Nationwide Commercial
ALL 3 plays hit as Denver won 24-10 and me & my friends celebrated in Las Vegas the rest of the weekend.
Time to bring the winning to basketball season, my favorite time of the year. I coached the game, I know the game, now it’s time for me to get to know these teams better to deliver more winners.
Follow me on Twitter @spreadinvestor