Lakers +4.5 at Warriors    1 unit

Lakers +130 to win the series  1.5 unit

The Warriors are going from a Game 7 to Game 1 with only 1 day in between and the Lakers had 3 days to rest/prep and had a blowout easy game their closeout game. It took Looney having 20+ rebounds 3 times in that series and Steph going to another level to win Game 7. Poole struggled shooting only 25% from three the last series and if the Lakers put Vanderbilt on Klay that’s a tough matchup for Klay to shoot over him. The red flags have been there for the Warriors – Kuminga and Poole haven’t been happy throughout the season, they won 7 road games and lost the first 2 in Sacramento. A story came out that Steph gave a speech to the team after Game 6 when they lost by 19 at home and there were hints of guys needing to not be emotional and do what they have to do for the team for Game 7. It’s not the same situation as last year and as far as Game 1 you would think they’re unbeatable at home in Game 1s but they lost by 12 to Boston last year in Game 1 and because they weren’t in the playoffs 2019-2021 if you go back before that they lost a Game 1 at home as 7.5 point favorites to OKC and in the 2016 Finals vs Lebron Golden State was big favorites and the Cavs forced OT (and should’ve won but JR Smith pulled the ball out thinking they were up). The Lakers went into Memphis Game 1 and won by double digits and I think they catch the Warriors a little tired in this series.