Dave Milhouse, House Money Media
Both Dallas and New York tend to start the season slow on offense. The last 2 meetings for these teams in Dallas were both September games, total points were 22 and 33. Both teams know how much is on the line and generally that can lead to being conservative early in the season. Both quarterbacks are below average in the passing game and Zeke is coming in with ZERO reps.
In the last 6 home DIV games the Cowboys have only given up one 1Q score.
In the last 6 road DIV games the Giants have 16 points combine in the 1Q, scoring in only 2 of the games. ZERO 1H points in the 3 games that were in September.
Giants were 3-1 to the under in September last season, Cowboys matched them.
The Cowboys ranked 12th in pressure and 8th in coverage by PFF grades last season. With the decline of Eli Manning and the long injury list of the Giants wide receivers I think that will be a problem for New York’s ability to create first downs and move the chains. We can expect regression in this spot because of the circumstances, regression when you’re 24th in passing grades makes this difficult to see success on the road. The Giants have added to the defense this off-season and since they were a terrible 26th in total defense grades its hard not to see them improving from that position.
Worth noting the Gmen are running at 57% to the under when they lose over the last 2 seasons and have 6 September losses over that span going 5-1 to the under in those. This looks like another September loss to me, although at this line I only see value on the total.
I don’t trust either QB or coach to make a +EV decision under pressure or between the opposing 40 and midfield. I’m sure that will lead to points left on the field and plenty of media overreaction to follow. Lots of running will keep the clock moving while limiting chunk plays, surely short field goals and short punts with these coaches.
My full NFL card each week is available on the House Money Media Slack Channel.
Best of luck on opening week.
Dallas Under 44.5 +105
Risk 1 Unit
2019 NFL 0-0
2018 NFL 46-32 +25.78u (59%)
note: I often sell points to make plus money, if you can great, if not that’s fine. Under 45.5 -110 has a similar edge