Dave Milhouse, House Money Media


UFC Vancouver Main Event

On September 14th in Vancouver the fans will be in for a treat and the investors are too. There is nothing better than finding an edge in a marquee matchup, absolute slug fest main event to get the heart racing and the wallet fatter at the same time.

The line of Gaethje -188 on pinnacle is an implied probability of 65.3%. My line of -280 implies a 73.7% edge, leaving us a 8.4% edge over the market and a strong probability to go with the edge.

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone has been through many wars in his career, the most recent war with Tony Ferguson took a lot out of him. It ended Cowboy’s comeback and sudden rise in the lightweight division but more importantly showed me another example of a perfect blue print on how to defeat Donald Cerrone: PRESSURE. Tony Ferguson pressures in a very similar way to Justin Gaethje.

The stat line vs Tony Ferguson

Tony landed 68% of his significant strikes totaling 102 in 2 rounds. Cowboy landed 35% totaling 63. Compare to his career average below and you’ll see he performs much worse against talented pressure.

Some fighters match up against certain martial arts well, some are good at countering, others at leading the dance. Donald Cerrone has success when he can dictate the pace and be the one walking forward. At age 36 he is a bit slower and a bit more passive, however even if he was more aggressive it would matter – no one is out pacing Justin Gaethje. He has also struggled once he gets up the latter to face top competition. Since 2016 Cerrone has lost to every top 5 fighter he has faced. This is sure to be one of Cowboys toughest tests to date.

Justin averages
significant strikes per minute 8.5
accuracy 54.7%
against per minute 10.23
defense 53.8%

Donald averages
significant strikes per minute 4.35
accuracy 46.7%
against per minute 4.18
defense 54.16

Although Cowboy has a positive strike differential of +0.17 per minute, it’s a less than 1% striking efficiency.

Justin has a negative strike differential of -1.73 but a 8.5% boost in efficiency. The volume is double, with the punches having more power it should be obvious on the faces of the fighters who is winning.

This is where I think we the real edge is

Despite all the wins and the stats Donald Cerrone is a good fighter when he can lead the dance but is very inefficient when fighting off his back foot. Justin Gaethje will force Cowboy to do that the entirety of the fight, leaving him below his average in efficiency and taking the power off Cowboys strikes.

At age 36, Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone needs some rest. He has been rushing into fights, not getting proper recovery or proper camps. This is fight number 5 in the last 10 months, far too much volume at the end of a career, hes grabbing all the paydays he can before it’s over. Justin Gaethje right in his prime, getting better every fight has had 1 fight in the last year, he is clearly the healthier fighter. Gaethje has a granite chin, great leg kicks, is more than willing to trade a lesser blow from Cerrone to land his heavy heavy shots and this will certainly lead to Gaethje winning the rounds. Damage, pace and strikes landed will all go in favor of Justin Gaethje and with 5 rounds to work I’m pretty sure he will not only win but get the finish, potentially putting Donald Cerrone into retirement.

Justin Gaethje -188
Risk 2 units

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MMA 64-34 +41.14u (65%)