Last week we were on UCF against Stanford. Blowout win for UCF. But that was a horrible spot for Stanford between the travel, the cluster injuries on the offensive line, and that it was a horrible sandwich spot for them as they host Oregon this week. I have been impressed with what I have seen from this Pitt defense as they’ve allowed just the 32nd fewest opponents yard per plays against solid offenses including Penn State most recently.
This is an interesting spot for UCF, despite the bad spot beating Stanford is a strong footnote on their resume. Now they go on the road as double digit favorites against a good defense. Have to imagine there is a drop in motivation from playing Stanford to Pitt and I think there is plenty of room for Pitt to stay within the number here.
Pitt was able to hold the ball for over 30 minutes against Penn State and that will have to be the game-plan against a team like UCF who will try and go up and down the field. This line seems a tad inflated as I mentioned above, not taking anything away from their performance at Stanford but I really think that played a huge factor in the start Stanford got off to in their game in Orlando Saturday.
The spread being as high as +13 yesterday suggests that if this game were to be played in Orlando the spread would be somewhere around UCF -19? The “Game of the Year” lines released by DraftKings had this game Pitt -2.5 before the season started. So whats up with this major of an adjustment? Not buying it, like Pitt to muck it up here and keep this one within the number.
The Pick
Pitt +12.5 *released on Weds. I like this line down to +7
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NCAAF: 12-4-2 +9.72u, NFL: 3-1 +2.19
