Every summer, several Las Vegas sportsbooks post their college football “Games of the Year.” These are bettable options for marquee games from late August all the way through the last weekend of November. So if you have a great pulse on a team, you can lock in a number before the markets are able to watch and react.
One of the largest market moves has taken place in the Big Ten with Michigan and Wisconsin. The Golden Nugget opened up the Wolverines as a six-point road favorite in Madison and there was hardly any opposition to that number either way. Turn the page to today and the Badgers are laying 3.5 at almost every out in the desert.
So what changed? Well, Wisconsin rolled two mediocre teams by a combined score of 110-0 and Michigan should’ve lost at home to Army. The Badgers rushed for 234 yards at South Florida and racked up an insane 599 total yards of offense against Central Michigan. Meanwhile, the Wolverines needed a missed field goal at the end of regulation by a military kicker wearing #96 to force overtime.
Last weekend me and my team wrote about buying low on Nebraska — a team that was completely undervalued going into their game with Northern Illinois. We told you to ignore the noise from a small sample size and trust the initial perception on the Huskers. All Nebraska did was destroy NIU 44-8 as a 14-point favorite.
This weekend’s Michigan-Wisconsin game should be around a pick-em. There’s no way a near ten-point move against Jim Harbaugh’s team can be justified. How quickly we forget that Michigan’s season win total was 10 and Wisconsin was 7.5 or 8. Also, Kenny White’s College Football Power Ratings have this one at 31-18 Michigan.
Wisconsin’s offense is built and predicated on the power run game. The Badgers gash you and wear you down with their massive offensive line, and then set you up for play action kills late in the second half. Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown will keep eight men in the box and make Jack Coan beat them with his arm. On the other side of the ball, one source out of Ann Arbor told us that Harbaugh has purposely saved several of their new offensive wrinkles for conference play. Be ready for the kitchen sink.
The market is off and we like the points with the better team. Michigan +3.5
Brandon is a professional sports bettor and poker player. Him and his team can be found on brandonwittmeyer.com . They released their first pick on this site last week and delivered Nebraska -14 in a 44-8 blowout. You can follow Brandon on Twitter @BettorBW