Auburn has done nothing but impress me this season, exceeding expectations and covering the spread in each of their first five games. So why are we fading them? Simply too much of an overreaction from the game of the year line is a major part. Before the season started oddsmakers made this game Florida -7. Of course this was assuming that Felipe Franks would be doing the quarterbacking for the Gators.
It may not have come against the stiffest of competition but Kyle Trask has stepped in nicely for Franks and arguably has played much better. It is clear to anyone that watches that Trask is a much different style of quarterback in just a few games, they are already showing more confidence in allowing Trask to throw the ball than they did with Franks. This will be important in keeping up with Auburn’s offense and I think Trask gives them a better opportunity to do this than Franks would. What makes Franks more dynamic is his rushing ability, but he never really got that going this season. Whether is was him, the offensive line, or a combination of both we won’t know. What is clear by looking at the number of pass attempts Trask has attempted, is that Florida is looking to attack teams through the air more with Trask at QB. Trask has completed 51 of 66 passes this season (77%) for 647 yards.
Auburn benefited last week facing a Mississippi State team which allows the 92nd highest opponent yard per play in the nation at 6.1. They will face a much stiffer task against this Florida defense. Florida is 26th in the nation against the run allowing just 107.3 yards per game on the ground. Auburn ranks just 93rd in the nation in passing yards per game and are 14th in the nation in rushing attempts per game at 46.8. They rely on their ground game to open up their offense and I do not envision them having much success against this Florida front seven.
Florida is coming off a bye week, Auburn has played a very tough schedule and have yet to have a bye week. They travel for the 2nd time in three weeks, most recently playing at College Station, always a tough place to play. Now they go to Florida who has an easier stretch, is more fresh, and has seen a boost in their offense. These are two great defenses both holding teams under 20 ppg. I like Florida to keep this one close and maybe steal one here at home.
Follow Tom on Twitter @TheJudgeSports
2019 NCAAF: 17-8 +9.57
*Released on Twitter 9/30