Nevada is 123rd in the nation in net yards per play (-2.4) yet have started the year 2-3 ATS. I expect that to regress as Nevada breaks in a new QB & left tackle against a SJSU team that averages -0.4 net yards per play (T-77th). The loss of LT Jake Nelson for Nevada is devastating, as he started 30 straight games & was a senior leader on that team/OL.
Nevada is off a bye, which should help the transition to new QB Malik Henry, but not if he doesn’t have any time to throw. San Jose St. has already proven they can win on the road this season (won @ Arkansas 31-24), and QB Josh Love was just named MW Offensive Player of the Week. Granted it was against New Mexico, but Nevada’s defense is just as bad. Since the beginning of last season, SJSU is 8-2 ATS against in-conference opponents. I like San Jose St to cover and win this game.
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College Football YTD: 14-4-2, +9.7 units
