Every week we’ll take a look at teams who are in tough situational spots, whether it be a potential look-ahead, letdown, or flat spots. I’ll also list teams on back-to-back road tips. This isn’t to say to stay away from these teams, but it’s good to consider these teams’ situations when handicapping your games during the week.
Potential Letdown/Flat Spots
- Bowling Green +11 vs Central Michigan
- Upset Toledo 20-7 at home as 26.5-pt dogs
- South Florida +14 vs Navy
- Upset BYU 27-23 at home as 4.5-pt dogs
- Texas Tech +7 vs Iowa State
- Lost 33-30 in 2OT at Baylor last week
Texas Tech was on this list last week after upsetting Oklahoma State as double-digit dogs, yet they covered again the following week against Baylor. I think their place on this list is a bit different this week though. An upset win like TTU had two weeks ago may have caused an inexperienced team with a new HC to start believing in themselves more, but losing a heart-breaker the following week in double-overtime will be tougher to bounce back from.
- UNLV +16 at Fresno State
- Upset Vanderbilt 34-10 on the road as 15.5-pt dogs
UNLV is 122nd in the country in net yards per play (-2.1), but Vanderbilt is just as bad (also averaging -2.1 net ypp). Fresno State is 47th in net yards per play (0.4) & are coming off a bad loss to Air Force (outscored 21-0 in the 2nd half). Lean Fresno St. here.
- USC -9.5 vs Arizona
- Outscored Notre Dame 24-13 in the 2nd half but still lost by 3
- LSU -18.5 at Mississippi State
- Beat Florida 42-28 but game was tied at half
Sandwich spot for LSU here. They’re laying more than 2 TD’s on the road coming off a big home win over Florida & have Auburn on deck.
Potential Look-ahead Spots
- Houston -22 at UConn (vs SMU next)
I’m not too sure a team that has been accused of tanking for next season has much to look-ahead to this season, but SMU is undefeated & ranked #19 in the country right now. With how bad UConn is though, I don’t think this spot means much.
- Ohio State -28 at Northwestern (vs Wisconsin next)
Here’s a spot where I don’t necessarily think Ohio State will overlook Northwestern due to it being a night game on the road, but I do think having Wisconsin on deck could cause them to take their foot off the gas if they have a large lead heading into the 4th quarter. 28-points is a lot to lay in-conference, and I just think the backdoor could be wide open if OSU decides to pull some starters late in the game.
- Auburn -18.5 at Arkansas (at LSU next)
- LSU -19 at Mississippi State (vs Auburn next)
- California -11 vs Oregon State (at Utah next)
- Washington State -13.5 vs Colorado (at Oregon next)
Teams on Back-to-Back Road Trips
- UL-Monroe +14.5 @ Appalachian St. (won 24-14 @ Texas State lw)
- Colorado +13.5 @ Washington St. (lost 45-3 @ Oregon lw)
- Michigan +8.5 @ Penn St. (won 42-25 @ Illinois lw)
- Toledo -1.5 @ Ball St. (lost 20-7 @ Bowling Green lw)
Toledo is currently receiving 74% of bets in what I’m sure people think will be a bounce-back spot, but their starting QB has already been ruled out this week. Lean Ball St. here.
- Georgia Tech +18 @ Miami FL (lost 41-23 @ Duke lw)
- Old Dominion +16 @ UAB (lost 31-17 @ Marshall lw)
- Florida State +2 @ Wake Forest (lost 45-14 @ Clemson lw)
Florida State had high expectations heading into this season, and after their latest ass-kicking by Clemson, I question how motivated this team will be to finish the year strong. Willie Taggert’s seat keeps getting hotter & hotter, and the players are well-aware. I have a hard time seeing them rally around him after what we’ve already seen so far this season.
- Kent St. +7.5 @ Ohio (won 26-3 @ Akron lw)
- NIU -1.5 @ Miami OH (won 39-36 @ Ohio lw)
- Middle Tenn St. +9 @ North Texas (lost 28-13 @ FAU lw)
- Iowa St. -7 vs Texas Tech (won 38-14 @ WVU lw)
- UNLV +15 @ Fresno St. (won 34-10 @ Vanderbilt lw)
- Charlotte +9 @ WKU (lost 48-23 @ FIU)
- Army -6.5 @ Georgia State (lost 18-8 @ WKU lw)
- Florida -5 @ South Carolina (lost 42-28 @ LSU lw)
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