Hawaii’s biggest weakness is very clearly their defense (91st in ypp allowed), but more specifically, their rush defense (107th in yards allowed per rush attempt). That’s not ideal with Air Force & their triple option attack coming into town. Air Force should dominate time of possession and limit how many times Hawaii’s air raid offense touches the ball. Simply put, this is an awful matchup for a Hawaii team coming off a big road trip to undefeated Boise State. Also, Hawaii has not been a good bet ATS at home lately. Since Hawaii HC Nick Rolovich took over in 2016, Hawaii is 6-14-1 ATS at home (30%).
Another aspect I like here is Air Force HC Troy Calhoun’s experience coaching in Hawaii. He’s traveled there as a player, assistant coach, and head coach, so I expect him to have his team focused & ready to play. Calhoun said in an interview earlier this week, “I’ve been a part of teams that have handled it really poorly, and I’ve been a part of teams that handled it really, really well. As good as they are, you have to handle it well. Especially this year. They have that good of a football team.” I expect Air Force to wear down Hawaii’s defense, keep their offense off the field, and win this one by 7+.
NCAAF Record (through week 7): 19-8-2 for +10.88 units
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