I know all about Tom Herman’s record ATS as an underdog, but no one seems to talk about Matt Campbell’s success ATS. Since joining Iowa in 2016, Campbell’s team is 63% ATS (5th best in college football during this stretch). And if you look only at Big 12 games, Campbell is 22-10-1 ATS (68.8%). While Iowa State has greatly underachieved expectations this season, they’ve still been a very competitive football team. All four of their losses were to teams that are ranked and those 4 losses were by a combined 11 points. Iowa State will have revenge on their minds after losing 24-10 in Austin last year and they also have the better team this year, despite what national polls say.
Texas has only played in two true road games so far and I wasn’t very impressed with either effort. Their defense gave up 463 yards to an awful WVU offense and then followed that up by allowing 435 yards in a loss at TCU. WV is currently 102nd in yards per play and TCU is 84th. Now Texas travels to a hostile and cold environment to face the 6th ranked offense in yards per play. Their already thin secondary will be without corner Jalen Green for the 1st half due to a dirty hit that got him ejected last week. I don’t think Texas can get enough stops and I see Iowa State winning by double digits.