It’s been an incredible 2 weeks waiting for Super Bowl 50 and now we’re just days away from kickoff. Seemingly everyone is betting on Carolina in this game as LV Sportbook estimates that 85% of bets are on the Panthers. With that in mind, I’ll let you know I’m taking the Broncos and I’m taking them big.
I went 10-3 ATS (77%) in January and I’ve also gone 3-0 ATS on Barstool Sports’ Lock of The Week. I’m 8-2 ATS lifetime in the Super Bowl. I’m taking the Broncos +6 for 10 units, my highest rated play.
Here are 7 reasons why Denver will cover and win outright in Super Bowl 50:
1. Complete disrespect for Denver’s defense: Nobody gave the Broncos a chance last week versus New England. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were supposed to destroy Peyton Manning and then win their second Super Bowl in a row. That clearly didn’t happen and nobody’s talking about how Denver’s defense completely broke New England’s offense to pieces that game. Bettors would have taken New England -6 in that game if the spread was that high and the Broncos won the game outright.
2. Denver thrives in the underdog role: “We feed off the underdog role. It sounds clichéd but I feel like every time challengers knock on the door or the media says what we can’t do, we always answer the challenge. I’m eager to get to Sunday.” – TJ Ward
Denver is 4-0 ATS this season as underdogs. They’ve been doubted, criticized, and overlooked all season and yet they’re here in the Super Bowl. I truly believe Denver’s performance last week was a byproduct of the fact that nobody believed they can win that game. Bettors across the country lost a lot of money on New England last week.
Nobody’s giving Denver a shot.
3. Just because Cam Newton is the better quarterback doesn’t mean Carolina -6 is the play.
Tom Brady was a favorite 4 times in the Super Bowl. He lost ATS all 4 times. If Brady and Belichick can lose ATS like that we’re supposed to sit here and think Cam Newton & The Carolina Panthers are invincible?
4. Demarcus Ware and Von Miller can keep Cam Newton in the pocket.
It seems as if Ware and Miller will each win their individual matchups no matter who they face. That helps their chances keeping Cam Newton inside the pocket, which is not impossible to do. Versus Seattle, Carolina won more with their defense than Cam’s explosiveness as the Seahawks held Cam to just 3 yards on 11 rushes. If Cam Newton is kept in the pocket for the majority of the game then The Brocnos’ secondary is good enough to shut down Carolina’s receivers the same way they did to New England’s receivers.
New England had just 12 points of true offense last week – one of their touchdowns was a 20 yard drive off a turnover. Let that one sink in for a second.
If Gronkowski doesn’t make that incredible catch at the end of the game then New England could’ve been held to 3 points of total offense in that game.
5. Peyton Manning’s underrated efficiency since he’s been healthy.
Everyone’s saying Manning is going to get destroyed by Carolina’s defense but nobody is talking about how he fooled New England’s defense multiple times last week for 2 touchdowns and his mobility in the pocket is significantly better now that his foot is healthy.
Kubiak won’t let Peyton put this game on his back and Manning won’t let one of his mistakes cost the team the game. The difference between this season’s Broncos team and any other Peyton Manning team is that Manning’s defense can win this game and doesn’t need 3 or 4 TDs from Manning. He has 0 INTS in the playoffs and his deep passes looked good last week. Carolina plays a lot of zone defense, which plays into Manning’s hands.
6. Underdogs are 6-1 ATS the last 7 Super Bowls and 10-3 ATS the last 13.
*excluding last year’s Patriots-Seahawks game because that spread was PK.
7. Peyton Manning’s retirement.
This is special for Peyton and the entire Broncos organization. Ray Lewis, Michael Strahan, and Jerome Bettis were the last 3 high profile players to retire right after their Super Bowl. All three of them won the Super Bowl as Ray Lewis’s Ravens were 4 point underdogs while Strahan’s Giants were 12 point underdogs to New England. Peyton is in the same exact position.
The players, the coaches, and the Broncos organization want this one for Peyton. Some say it’s impossible to be any more motivated than you already are for a Super Bowl but I’d argue that this moment creates a “next-level” type performance for this game.
I envision Denver’s defense putting this game on their back and playing angry in a game that everybody’s counting them out. Play Denver money line +200 and Under 45.5 as well….Broncos 20-17.
Super Bowl I Can Not Wait
-Peyton Manning on this weekend’s Nationwide Commercial
Broncos won 24-10. Von Miller strip-sacked Cam in the 1st quarter to put Denver up 10-0 and TJ ward had an INT in the 4th quarter to seal the game.
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