Average bettors typically want to run the other way after a team gets blown out. I’ve profited a bunch on teams right after they get buried (as long as it’s a team who has potential & thick skin) because not only do they typically get more points on the spread than they should but a lot of times will prepare harder for the following game to redeem themselves. Take a look @ the Bucs last year:
Week 1 the Bucs were embarrassed by Marcus Mariota and the Titans 42-14. Everyone was saying how Jameis Winston was going to be a bust and he looked awful. The next week the Bucs were +10 @ New Orleans and that line was wildly inflated because of the blowout loss to the Titans. Bucs should have been +5 at the most. The Saints had a shitty defense, were adjusting to life without Jimmy Graham, and had Drew Brees playing with a little bit of a limp. My clients & I had the Bucs +10 vs the Saints and the Bucs got the job done with a 26-19 outright win.
Most people would say that was a shocker but it wasn’t. Because the year before the Bucs were in the SAME EXACT SITUATION – they got destroyed by Atlanta 56-14 in Week 3, went to Pittsburgh in Week 4 at +7.5 and won the game outright 27-24. Certain teams can bounceback strong.
But this situation isn’t limited to the Bucs. In 2014, my first year with Spread Investor, the 49ers had hit rockbottom. They had lost 2 games in a row in the middle of the season and got embarrassed by Denver 42-17. After the losing streak they went to New Orleans where the Saints had won 19 straight home games under Sean Payton. Didn’t matter though – it was make or break for Harbaugh & the 49ers – and as 6 point underdogs in revenge mode the 49ers went to the Superdome and won outright 27-24. 10 unit win on the 49ers right after taking the Saints for 10 units back-to-back weeks for 2 wins in a row.
Blowouts create: inflated spreads & hungry teams looking to bounceback. Keep your eyes peeled.
